Centre-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz declared victory in Germany’s national election on Sunday after exit polls indicated his bloc was in the lead. “It will not be easy,” Merz said, acknowledging the challenges ahead, but vowed to form a governing coalition as swiftly as possible.
For his part, Germany’s incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz conceded defeat in the national election, calling it a “bitter result” for his centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Elections were originally scheduled to take place in September but were brought forward following the dramatic collapse of Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition, which had led Germany since 2021, at the end of last year.
The outgoing German coalition, comprised of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Greens, fell apart following disputes over the country's parlous economic performance and security challenges. The tensions eventually resulted in Scholz firing his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner.
Scholz then triggered the election by calling a confidence vote in parliament that he knew he could not win, which ultimately triggered the process that has resulted in the elections being held later this month.
In the final run-up to the election, polls indicated that Merz’s centre-right CDU/CSU alliance was set to win the most votes with about 30% support, while the AfD was in second place with just over 20%. This means the AfD polled five points higher than Scholz’s SPD party, having trailed the SPD by 15 points less than three years ago.
The AfD’s strong polling has provoked concern on both sides of Germany’s political divide, with Merz particularly anxious to prevent the populist movement from taking votes from his more mainstream CDU.
Migration and the rise of the far right
Migration has featured prominently during Germany’s short election campaign—especially after migrants were blamed for carrying out two fatal attacks in the cities of Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg. It has increasingly become a controversial issue in Germany ever since 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to the refugee crisis caused by Syria’s civil war by allowing an estimated one million refugees to seek refuge in Europe’s most populated country.
At the time, Merkel described the refugee crisis as “one of Europe’s biggest challenges in decades” and proudly claimed that Berlin’s decision to allow tens of thousands of exhausted refugees to enter the country had shown Germany’s “friendly, beautiful face.”
Yet, while Germany’s generosity helped to alleviate the worst effects of the refugee crisis, the sudden influx of so many refugees has now been blamed for the growing support enjoyed by far-right parties in Germany, such as the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Renowned for its pronounced Eurosceptic views and its vehement opposition to Germany’s hitherto relaxed migration policy, the AfD has gradually grown in strength to the extent that many polls predict it will now win enough votes to form a coalition with Merz’s CDU.
Its growing influence is certainly having a dramatic impact on Germany’s political landscape, with Merz’s CDU seemingly desperate to prevent more of its supporters from opting to vote for the AfD. This has resulted in the CDU taking the bombshell decision to accept limited support and cooperation with the AfD, previously a red line for mainstream parties.
Merz’s decision to cooperate with the AfD on a non-binding resolution on border security earlier this month violated an unwritten rule of the post-Nazi period that the country’s mainstream parties refrain from cooperating with the far right. The CDU’s decision to cooperate with the AfD provoked severe criticism throughout Germany, with Scholz directly attacking his rival.
The move also provoked widespread demonstrations throughout Germany, with hundreds of thousands of people turning out in central Munich to protest against anti-immigration AfD ahead of the forthcoming elections.
Early life and career
Merz was born in 1955 into a conservative Catholic family in the North Rhine-Westphalia town of Brilon, in central Germany, and joined the CDU’s youth wing while still in school. His father served as a local judge, as does Friedrich Merz's own wife, Charlotte.
The younger Merz joined the CDU while still at school. He entered politics full-time in 1989 when he was elected to the European Parliament at the age of 33. After serving one term as an MEP, Merz, a married father of three, was elected to the Bundestag – Germany’s parliament – and established himself as a leader in financial policy. In 2003, he famously argued that German tax rules should be simple enough to calculate on the back of a beer coaster.
He rose through the ranks, touted as a talent in the party's more right-wing, traditionalist faction. "He's a splendid speaker and a profound thinker," says Klaus-Peter Willsch, a CDU member of the Bundestag who has known him for more than 30 years.
But back in the early noughties, his ambitions were initially derailed, and he lost out to Angela Merkel in a party power struggle. The growing feud with Merkel eventually pushed him to leave politics, and he left parliament entirely to pursue a lucrative series of corporate jobs, forging a career in finance and corporate law, becoming a boardroom executive at various international firms and, reputedly, a millionaire, but was written off politically.
Nearly a decade after he left politics, the announcement of Merkel’s resignation paved the way for Merz to re-enter. And, despite two failed bids for CDU party leadership, he was selected to lead in January 2022, cementing his political comeback and becoming Germany’s main opposition leader.
