The far-right AfD has grown in strength to the extent that many polls predict it will win enough votes to form a coalition with Merz’s CDU in an election that could have a domino effect across Europe
REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch
A person votes at a polling station in a pub during the 2025 general election in Berlin, Germany, February 23, 2025.
When Germans go to polls today on 23 February, the emergence of migration as a key issue for voters of all political persuasions will have a direct bearing on the outcome, with all the polls predicting victory for Friedrich Merz, the leader of the right-of-centre Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Migration has increasingly become a controversial issue in Germany ever since 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to the refugee crisis caused by Syria’s civil war by allowing an estimated one million refugees to seek refuge in Europe’s most populated country.
At the time, Merkel described the refugee crisis as “one of Europe’s biggest challenges in decades” and proudly claimed that Berlin’s decision to allow tens of thousands of exhausted refugees to enter the country had shown Germany’s “friendly, beautiful face.”
Yet, while Germany’s generosity helped to alleviate the worst effects of the refugee crisis, the sudden influx of so many refugees has now been blamed for the growing support enjoyed by far-right parties in Germany, such as the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Renowned for its pronounced Eurosceptic views and its vehement opposition to Germany’s hitherto relaxed migration policy, the AfD has gradually grown in strength to the extent that many polls predict it will win enough votes to form a coalition with Merz’s CDU.
Coalition collapse
The elections were initially scheduled to take place in September but were brought forward following the dramatic collapse of Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition, which had led Germany since 2021, at the end of last year.
The AfD is now polling five points higher than Scholz's SPD party, having trailed the SPD by 15 points less than three years ago
The coalition, comprised of Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Greens, fell apart following disputes over the country's parlous economic performance and security challenges. The tensions eventually resulted in Scholz firing his liberal finance minister, Christian Lindner.
Scholz then triggered the election by calling a confidence vote in parliament that he knew he could not win, which ultimately triggered the process that has resulted in the elections being held later this month.
Migration has featured prominently during Germany's short election campaign, especially after migrants were blamed for carrying out two fatal attacks in the cities of Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg.
The latest polls indicate that Merz's centre-right CDU/CSU alliance remains set to win the most votes with about 30% support, while the AfD is in second place with just over 20%. This means the AfD is now polling five points higher than Scholz's SPD party, having trailed the SPD by 15 points less than three years ago.
The AfD's strong polling has provoked concern on both sides of Germany's political divide, with Merz particularly anxious to prevent the populist movement from taking votes from his more mainstream CDU.
The AfD's strong showing, moreover, has been aided by the support it has received from US tech billionaire Elon Musk, the owner of social media site X, who has given the party his personal endorsement, as well as hosting a live discussion with party leader Alice Weidel on the platform.
Scholz should resign immediately. Incompetent fool.
Recent research conducted by the Pew Centre has found that one reason for the growth in support for the AfD has been the positive image the party has among young German men, with research showing that in 2024, 26% of German men viewed the AfD in a positive light, compared to 11% of women. The share of young German men holding this opinion has risen 10 points since 2022.
German exit polls revealed that, in elections for the European Parliament in 2024, the number of under-24-year-olds, both male and female, who voted for the AfD in Germany rose to 16%, up by 11 points from 2019.
A frequent explanation given for young German males turning to the AfD is their concerns over the rising number of attacks in Germany involving suspects who were asylum seekers – most recently, the fatal stabbing of a toddler and a man in a park in the Bavarian city of Aschaffenburg.
Growing influence
The growing influence of the AfD is certainly having a dramatic impact on Germany's political landscape, with Merz's CDU seemingly desperate to prevent more of its supporters from opting to vote for the AfD. This has resulted in the CDU taking the bombshell decision to accept limited support and cooperation with the AfD, previously a red line for mainstream parties.
Merz's decision to cooperate with the AfD on a non-binding resolution on border security violated an unwritten rule of the post-Nazi period that the country's mainstream parties refrain from cooperating with the far right. The CDU's decision to cooperate with the AfD provoked sharp criticism throughout Germany, with Scholz directly attacking his rival.
Participants display placards against the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party during a rally against the far right at the Theresienwiese in Munich, southern Germany, on February 8, 2025.
The move also provoked widespread demonstrations throughout Germany, with hundreds of thousands of people turning out in central Munich earlier this month to protest against anti-immigration AfD ahead of the forthcoming elections.
German security officials estimated that 250,000 people took part in the Munich protest, which organisers dubbed "Munich is multicolour". Many demonstrators rallied to the slogan "democracy needs you", and demanded that Germany's mainstream parties refused to cooperate with the AfD.
Organisers said the Munich protest aimed to send a "strong signal in favour of diversity, human dignity, cohesion and democracy". But with the AfD set to grab a significant chunk of the vote and Merz's CDU already showing a willingness to work with the far-right populists, all the indications suggest that, for the first time in Germany's post-war history, a far-right group will be represented in the German parliament.
