How has the world beyond the Middle East changed in 2024? Perhaps the most significant development was the re-election of Donald Trump in November’s US presidential elections. But the US is not the only state to change government, with a series of elections ejecting incumbent leaders, making many more right-wing and insular.
Beyond the West, Russia has had mixed fortunes in 2024, making steady advances in Ukraine but losing a key ally in Syria, while China, despite benefitting from the continued global shift to multipolarity, is facing a stagnating economy at home.
The Trump bombshell
Donald Trump’s dramatic presidential win in November was perhaps the most important geopolitical development of 2024. As the year began, success was far from expected, as he faced four criminal cases, including plotting to overturn his 2020 electoral defeat. Yet Trump overcame these hurdles to win the presidency handsomely, taking all of the swing states and popular vote to defeat Kamala Harris. His Republican party also retained the House of Representatives and took back the Senate. The clean sweep was remarkable because many had forecast a tight contest that would provoke weeks of legal fights.
The reasons for Trump’s comeback are debated. Some focus on the Democrats, with Joe Biden especially blamed. His refusal to step down earlier despite low polling gave Kamala Harris too little time. Some have also criticised Biden for endorsing Harris, noting she was a limited candidate. Others blame Harris’ campaign, which focused on securing support from the Democrat base rather than reaching out to potential Trump voters. Another explanation was that Trump benefitted from the Democrats’ incumbency at a time of high living costs.
Whatever the cause, 2025 will see Trump return to the White House supported by both houses of Congress and a relatively friendly Supreme Court. This will allow him to push through his domestic agenda, including moves to renege on Washington's climate change pledges. Internationally, his promises to hike trade tariffs with allies and rivals and a likely return to the transactional foreign policy of his first term suggest Trump’s return will mark a sharp departure in US foreign policy.
Incumbent rulers struggle
The Democrats were far from alone, as many incumbents struggled to retain power in 2024. Some were forcibly removed, such as Bangladesh’s long-ruling premier, Sheikh Hasina, who fled after a wave of popular protests. Hasina’s ally, Narendra Modi, meanwhile, suffered his own shock in June when he lost his majority in India’s parliamentary elections, forcing him into a coalition. South Africa’s ruling ANC faced a similar fate when it received under 50% of the electoral vote for the first time, moving into coalition to retain power.
No such option was available to the UK’s Conservative party as its 14 years in power came crashing down with its worst electoral defeat in modern history in July. Labour’s return to office has opened the door for greater cooperation between London and the EU after years of post-Brexit hostility, but Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s determination to remain out of the single market could undermine his proposed ‘reset’.
Starmer’s left-wing victory was something of an anomaly as most of Europe, like the US, saw a resurgence of the populist right. 2024 saw Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom entering government in the Netherlands and the Freedom Party winning the most seats in Austria’s September elections. The most significant breakthroughs were in France and Germany.
After the populist National Rally won France’s European parliamentary elections, centrist president Emmanuel Macron gambled by calling a parliamentary election, which he then lost. Though the National Rally was squeezed into third place, Macron has been unable to create a stable government. The result has been instability since the July elections, with the collapse of one government and fears about France in the bond markets.
Germany, too, saw a surge in populism, with the Alternative for Germany (AFD) becoming the first German far-right party since the Second World War to win a state election in September. With Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning government collapsing and early national elections coming in February, AFD may triumph, though the more traditional rightwing Christian Democrats are favourites.
The result of growing populism in Europe has prompted a right-ward shift across the continent. Even non-populists feel compelled to embrace harsher immigration and economic policies. This was seen recently in the formation of arguably the most-right-leaning European Commission ever, which included the Italian populist Raffaele Fitto as a vice president.
Like other European governments, the Commission seems to be prioritising tight immigration and a more insular approach to foreign policy, which will impact Europe’s interaction with the world in 2025. Meanwhile, the global trend against incumbents is likely to continue, with Canada’s Liberal premier, Justin Trudeau, heavily tipped to be defeated by the Conservatives in elections next year.
