In February 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech from the podium at the Munich Security Conference. In the audience just metres away were then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel, then-US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates, and then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
In his speech, Putin warned that NATO’s eastward expansion was “a serious provocation”. Just over a year later, at the NATO Summit in Bucharest in April 2008, members welcomed the aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine for membership and agreed that “these countries will become members of NATO”. Both border Russia.
When Putin spoke in 2007, the American delegation comprised Gates, John McCain, and Joe Lieberman. All three were senior politicians whose views had been formed during the Cold War, so they were wary of Russia. Indeed, Gates had been working at the CIA while Putin was at the KGB.
Two decades later
Fast forward to February 2025. Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine (launched in 2022 in large part due to Russian worries about NATO’s eastward expansion) continues to dominate the international agenda, taking centre stage at security summits like Munich, as well as in bilateral meetings and political conferences.
In 2025, there was no Putin or Russia in Munich (they were not invited). From the US, Vice-President JD Vance told delegates that the biggest threat to Europe’s security came not from Russia or China but “from within”, citing “a retreat from some of (Europe’s) most fundamental values”. The hall stayed silent.
Read more: Vance leaves Europe gobsmacked
Many nations—whether in the Middle East, South America, or Asia—have chosen to keep channels open with both Russia and Ukraine, as have some central and eastern European countries. A recent Romanian election was annulled when it looked like Russian meddling would successfully tip the balance in favour of a pro-Russian candidate. This irked Vance (who used his time in Munich to meet the leader of Germany’s far-right AfD party).
