Trump deporting Indians from America gives Modi a problem

Both men won an election last year and enjoy friendly relations, but tariffs and the sight of shackled Indians are huge problems for the man from Gujarat, whose supporters are those being deported

Indian migrants, with their hands handcuffed, line up to climb a plane as they are screened during their deportation.
MARTIN BERNETTI / AFP
Indian migrants, with their hands handcuffed, line up to climb a plane as they are screened during their deportation.

Trump deporting Indians from America gives Modi a problem

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the United States this week with a spring in his step after winning power in Delhi’s legislative assembly for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the first time in 27 years.

By banking on Modi’s face and his promises to improve life for the city’s 20 million population, the Hindu nationalist BJP trounced the Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal, who burst onto the scene in 2012 during an anti-corruption movement.

Despite the Delhi local government having only limited administrative powers, winning the capital will have a big psychological impact, not least due to the city’s large diplomatic and foreign media presence.

Deportees hit a nerve

The BJP enjoys huge support from Indians abroad, especially Gujaratis, whose BJP-ruled state has some of India’s highest migration figures. For them, the sight of 104 shackled Indians being deported from the United States on a military plane last week was not an easy one, not least because a third were from Gujarat.

This was the first deportation flight to India in President Donald Trump’s second White House term and makes the point that he is serious about combating illegal immigration in the US. About 20,000 unauthorised Indians in the US have been identified, and hundreds are set to be sent back soon, according to media reports.

As of 2022, the US was home to about 4.8 million Indian Americans, according to Pew Research. Two-thirds of them were immigrants, while a third were US-born. There are estimated to be 750,000 Indians illegally living in the US, making India the third biggest source of illegal immigrants in America after Mexico and El Salvador.

Yet seeing deportees in shackles has touched a nerve in India, with opposition leaders raising it in parliament and the media, embarrassing the Modi government. The choice of military aircraft was also problematic since it appeared to characterise the process as a national security operation. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri tellingly noted that "there are other types of flights" available.

About 20,000 unauthorised Indians in the US have been identified and hundreds are set to be sent back soon, according to media reports

Mobility and migration

External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the process of deportation "is not a new one and has been ongoing for several years". Indeed, during the past 16 years, 15,668 Indians have been deported from the US, almost half during Trump's first term (2017-21).

That a high number of Indian professionals seek opportunities in the US is clear: Indians accounted for more than 72% of all H-1B visas issued between October 2022 to September 2023. For India, "mobility and migration" are central to its multifaceted relationship with the US and others. 

Modi's Washington visit reinforces those close relations in technology, security, energy, education, and even space exploration. Bilateral trade in goods for the fiscal year ending 31 March 2024 was $118.2bn, with India enjoying a $36.8bn trade surplus. Bilateral trade in both goods and services was $190.1bn.

This makes the US India's largest trading partner, but India wants to go further and is seeking US investment and technology to strengthen its manufacturing sector, which accounts for just 2.8% of global output (China accounts for around 30%).

Bigger issues at play

China and the Indo-Pacific security environment significantly influence US-India cooperation, whether it is within the Quad grouping (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) or in bilateral military ties incorporating intelligence-sharing, training exercises, and weapons purchases. 

Ludovic Marin / AFP
US President Joe Biden (L) greets India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G20 Leaders' Summit in New Delhi on September 9, 2023.

During the Joe Biden regime, India resisted US pressure to reduce economic and military links with Russia. Under Trump, India will breathe a little easier. Trump and Modi get on well. Indeed, the dichotomy between the physical restraints on Indian deportees and the unrestrained Trump-Modi bonhomie is highlighted by Modi's critics.

For now, Modi must grapple with other challenges, not least Trump's crackdown on illegal immigrants, and his penchant for imposing tariffs. Both are serious worries for India, where exporters fret about tariffs and the central bank frets about the Indian rupee, which has come under pressure over fears of a pending global tariff war. 

All this will no doubt be discussed between Trump and Modi, the latter having won a third five-year term in June 2024. For India, a lot will depend on their relationship over the next four years. 

In February 2020, Trump began his two-day tour of India from Ahmedabad in Modi's home state of Gujarat before travelling to New Delhi and Agra, addressing a crowd of 125,000 in a stadium in Ahmedabad as the two leaders showed off their friendship. How the BJP leader would love another flag-waving love-in right now.

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