The year 2025 could be one of maps, given the huge shifts of 2024. Changes were seen not only in terms of territorial gains and losses, but also in the balance of power in the Middle East, with the fortunes of nations differing wildly.
As we look ahead, we will analyse the movements of armies, the control of ports (both naval and air), the security of supply routes, and the profits and losses of leaders. Absent from this familiar narrative will be the plight of the people—the true ‘substance’ of these conflicts—whose lives are consumed by wars for months, if not years.
In-depth studies abound on the geopolitical ramifications of Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsing, including the potential repercussions for Lebanon and Iraq, but scant attention is paid to the profound social, economic, and political changes that will shape the lives of millions of Syrians, Iraqis, and Lebanese.
How they will navigate the coming months remains uncertain. Syrians, for instance, still labour under Western sanctions imposed during Assad’s reign. Their continuation, for now at least, may be designed to nudge Syria’s new rulers in certain directions.
Perpetuating ruin
It is a similar story in Lebanon, a country already suffering from five years of political and economic disintegration before Israeli bombs caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage, not least to the state’s fertile agricultural land.
Despite the catastrophic economic situation, Lebanon’s entrenched ruling elite stubbornly insists on perpetuating the status quo, which is nothing short of criminal, since they clearly seek to exploit the disaster for personal gain.
