Without inclusive governance, Syria could fall back into chaos

Without prompt and united action, Syria's transition risks veering off course, with devastating consequences for the country and the region. Time is of the essence.

Without inclusive governance, Syria could fall back into chaos

What once seemed like an impossible dream is now a reality: al-Assad’s regime has fallen. For Syrians, this historic moment evokes both profound hope and anxiety. After years of struggle, sacrifice, and unimaginable hardships, many—including myself—dare to believe that the country we have long dreamed of can finally be realised. Yet, as we stand at this critical crossroads, uncertainty clouds the horizon, and the pressing question of "what comes next?" looms larger than ever.

On the ground, events are unfolding with dizzying speed. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has positioned itself at the forefront of Syria’s political transition. With a contentious history linked to the Islamic State (IS) and Al-Qaeda and its designation as a terrorist organisation, HTS’s dominance in this pivotal period is deeply concerning. Even more alarming, the transition in Syria is unfolding outside the framework of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, the internationally endorsed roadmap for Syria’s political transition.

The stakes could not be higher. Regional and international actors must act quickly and decisively to ensure Syria’s transition is inclusive and democratic. Without urgent intervention, the chance to stabilise Syria—and the broader region—may slip away, leaving chaos where peace should prevail.

Measured tone

During the swift military offensive that toppled the regime, HTS struck a measured tone. It promised to protect civilians, including minorities, and safeguard public assets and institutions. These assurances—coupled with remarkable discipline in areas it captured—offered a glimmer of hope. HTS even expressed willingness to delegate control of these areas to a transitional body, easing fears of unilateral rule.

However, recent developments paint a different picture. Shortly after the regime’s collapse, HTS appointed the prime minister of its Salvation Government—a body long in charge of administering its territories in northwest Syria—to form and lead a transitional government for the country. Reports also indicate that officials from the Salvation Government are the ones in charge of the handover of power from the Assad regime.

If HTS replicates the Salvation Government model, it risks excluding the very actors needed to shape Syria's future

This approach raises serious concerns, not only because of the individuals involved but also because of what it represents: a unilateral takeover by HTS rather than the formation of a broadly inclusive and representative governing body. The implications are profound. If HTS proceeds to replicate the Salvation Government's model across Damascus and other former regime-controlled areas, it risks excluding the very Syrian actors who should be shaping the country's future.

Flawed transitional process

HTS justifies these moves as a necessary step to ensure stability and continuity during a chaotic transitional period, which is set to conclude in March. However, there is a growing fear that HTS may use the interim period to consolidate power and entrench its vision for the country's governance, with little regard for broader participation from other Syrian actors or communities.

One particularly alarming step is the suspension of the constitution for three months to allow a legal and human rights committee to propose amendments. While this move is, in principle, necessary, the lack of clarity around the review process and the individuals involved deepens fears of unilateralism. Even more troubling, this constitutional revision process seems to be conducted entirely outside the framework of the UN-led political process, which was specifically designed to ensure inclusivity and international legitimacy.

Such a critical process cannot—and must not—be led by one actor or even a small group of actors. It certainly cannot be rushed or carried out behind closed doors. The legitimacy and success of Syria's transition depend on transparency, inclusivity, and adherence to the principles outlined in Resolution 2254.

There is a growing fear that HTS may use the interim period to consolidate power and impose its vision for governance

Historic opportunity

The slow response from regional and international actors is, to some extent, understandable, given the rapid pace of developments on the ground. However, this inaction is increasingly costly. The international community must now move swiftly from passive observation to active engagement. Time is of the essence. Without prompt and united action, Syria's transition risks veering off course, with devastating consequences for the country and the region.

Regional and international stakeholders must urgently work to implement the agreed-upon roadmap in Resolution 2254, ensuring that the transition is Syrian-led but supported by external guarantees of inclusivity and fairness. Key actors must also use their leverage to ensure that HTS does not monopolise the process or impose its vision unilaterally.

The stakes extend far beyond Syria. A successful transition would not only fulfill the aspirations of millions of Syrians who have fought tirelessly for a better future but also serve as a cornerstone for regional stability. Conversely, a failure to act decisively would leave Syria mired in uncertainty, its people deprived of the peace they so desperately need.

Syrians have done their part, enduring years of suffering and ultimately toppling the regime that oppressed them. Now, it is the responsibility of the international community and regional allies to step up. By ensuring that this transitional period is inclusive, democratic, and transparent, they can help Syrians achieve the future they have long dreamed of—one marked by justice, stability, and hope.

The world must not waste this historic moment.

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