Politics

What does the merger of Tuareg rebel groups mean for Mali?

Tuareg rebels who have long sought to form the independent nation of Azawad have come together to fight Mali’s new military leaders and their Russian mercenary friends. Will it help them?

AFP

An armed Tuareg group in the desert outside Menaka in Malki on March 14, 2020.

What does the merger of Tuareg rebel groups mean for Mali?

Rabia Abdul Salam

last update on 15 Dec 2024

Mali may soon enter a new chapter of conflict after the announcement of a historic merger of four movements representing the Tuareg population in northern Mali.

Previously united under the Strategic Framework alliance, these groups have now voluntarily dissolved to form a single movement tasked with representing the people of northern Mali and defending their interests.

The National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, the Imghad Tuareg Self-Defence Group and Allies, the High Council for the Unity of Azawad, and the Arab Movement of Azawad have been incorporated into the Azawad Liberation Front (ALF), which aims to form ‘Azawad’, an independent Tuareg nation.

The transitional military council in the Malian capital, Bamako, now has a choice. It can either reconsider its stance on dialogue and return to the principles for peace agreed most recently in Algiers, or it can escalate security tensions in the region, which could lead to a prolonged conflict that neither party is likely to win decisively while bringing widespread devastation to northern Mali, where terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Sahel and Islamic State (IS) remain active.

Seeking independence

The Tuareg are an ethnic confederation without a home, spread across northwest Africa, primarily Niger and Mali. In Niger, they have a degree of autonomy after successful negotiations with the government. But talks in Mali—most notably in 1992 and 2012—have only led to broad agreements followed by disappointments.

An estimated two million Tuareg comprise between 3-10% of Mali’s population. They hail from Berber clans, but their ancient origins are unclear. Although they are Muslims, they have their own language, spiritual belief system, social norms, and dress code (men wear the veil). Traditionally nomadic, today, many live in cities or squalid camps.

The decision to unify the Azawad movements was driven by necessity. Assimi Goïta, the colonel who led the latest coup in Bamako (there have been three since 2012), is a former special forces soldier who worked with Russian mercenaries in 2023 to retake Kidal, the town at the edge of the desert that has long been known as a Tuareg stronghold.

In response, Bamako can either reconsider its stance on dialogue and return to the principles for peace, or escalate security tensions in the region

Soon after, Bamako announced the cancellation of the Algiers Agreement signed in May 2015, replacing it with a domestic political dialogue without regional mediation. This has yet to yield any consensus or pave the way for a return to constitutional governance.

Bamako has no interest in negotiating with Tuareg representatives and refuses to acknowledge their existence, labelling them "terrorists" after Tuareg fighters fought alongside jihadists from al-Qaeda in 2012.

Logic for a merger

Political analyst Ahsan Khalas said: "This is not the first time that Azawad movements have merged, but this time, the merger is necessitated by the need to clearly and completely distance themselves from terrorist groups. The transitional military council in Bamako has started treating all movements in the north as terrorist organisations."

Idaber Ahmed, a professor of security and strategic studies at the Faculty of Law and Political Science at the University of Tamanrasset, said a merger had always been sought but had not been achieved "due to differing visions, a desire for leadership, and ongoing disagreements over secession".

According to Mohamed Al-Mouloud Ramadan, spokesman for the Azawad movements, the decision to unify was driven by "the failure of central Malian governments to uphold the commitments outlined in all agreements they signed".

He further highlighted "the brutal massacres of civilians during recent raids, the forced displacement of the Azawad population, and the exploitation of resources by Wagner mercenaries with the endorsement of the transitional authorities".

AFP — An armed Tuareg group in the desert outside Menaka in Malki on March 14, 2020.

Taking a battering

Ramadan also cited recent drone attacks by Malian soldiers on the town of Tinzaouatene in northern Mali, near the Algerian border. This killed eight Azawad movement leaders, including Fahd Ag Mahmoud, Sidi Ag Bay, Mohamed Ag Sharif, Bashar Ag Ahmed (chief of the Adnan Tuareg tribe), and two other tribal elders. It was a significant blow to the fight for Azawad.

"Assassinations of Azawad movement leaders are not new," said Prof. Ahmed. "Similar incidents occurred in 2012, including the assassination of leader Ibrahim Bahanga, and in 2016, the killing of Sheikh Ag Aoussa, the leader in the High Council for the Unity of Azawad. Recently, Hassan Fagaga was assassinated.

"While the leaders killed this time may not have the same stature as Bahanga, Aoussa, or Fagaga, the assassinations will exacerbate the conflict, deepen the divide between the north and south, and prolong the war and unrest."

Terrorist groups active in the Sahel may seek to exploit Mali's internal turmoil to attack the capital, as did a group called Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin, which is linked to al-Qaeda, and which attacked a police training academy and the airport in Bamako, killing 70 people.

To contain the latest crisis, Prof Ahmed emphasised the need to "launch a regional initiative that includes all countries in the region, advancing toward the preparation of a new agreement that serves all parties".

This agreement should have practical and implementable terms, focusing not only on military, security, and intelligence approaches to counter-terrorism but also on a comprehensive strategy incorporating economic and developmental dimensions."

Assassinations of Azawad movement leaders will exacerbate the conflict, deepen the north-south divide, and prolong the war and unrest

Prof Idaber Ahmed at the University of Tamanrasset

The goal would be to "rebuild and genuinely develop northern regions to ensure the sustainable integration of Azawad residents into all sectors of the state in a manner that guarantees equitable distribution of resources and equality for all citizens," he said.

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has been asked to intervene to halt what some say is a "genocide" in northern Mali. Tuareg leaders have also appealed. They say the Tuareg people are "known for their peaceful coexistence and humanitarianism", with "a storied history of courage and sacrifices marked by the blood of their martyrs".

They noted that "the Tuareg fiercely resisted French colonisation in Algeria and continue to resist it in Africa today, adhering to Algeria's steadfast principles of non-interference in the affairs of neighbouring countries and non-aggression against sister states".

The signatories warned of "dire consequences" if Bamako's attacks on the Tuareg people continued and called on Tebboune "to urgently intervene to find a solution for this region and halt the genocide before the situation worsens".

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