No one lives forever—and that includes dictators. With Bashar al-Assad now gone, and with nearly half a century of his family’s rule in Damascus now over, Syria can finally turn the page and begin a new chapter, with its people feeling reborn. Despite the unknowns and concerns, this is a joyous event.
With help from Iran and Russia, al-Assad had continued to live in luxury in his palace in Kasyoun, while Syrians—including his supporters—have had to eke out a living in a crumbling economy plagued by corruption and illegality. Such a situation could never last. Al-Assad’s brutality and deceit carried him only so far. Now, he has joined the caravan of other fallen dictators, although, unlike some others, he managed to escape with his life. He is now in Russia, where he was granted political asylum.
The most important issue for Syria today is to establish a transitional administration, prevent a governance vacuum, and avoid a plunge back into civil war. All eyes are on the leader of Hayat Tahrir-al Shams (HTS), Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. And while he gives moderate messages and tries to instil confidence, many are wary. HTS, which derives from Al-Qaeda and al-Nusra, looks to want a Taliban model to be adapted to Syria.
Winners and losers
In the background, taking much of the credit is Turkey, which is believed to have played a crucial role in the victory against al-Assad. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan promised to help Syrians rebuild their country at a conference in Doha.
The losers are undoubtedly Iran and Russia. Iran’s influence in Syria is gone, the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Lebanon ‘axis of resistance’ is now broken, and Iran’s supply line is effectively dismantled. Although Russia retains its Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase, it has lost considerable prestige.
Addressing the Doha delegates, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sounded confident but must have been embarrassed. Hours later, HTS and others raised the Syrian opposition’s flag over the Russian embassy in Damascus. Both Russia and Iran have blood on their hands here and are hated by many Syrians.
There will now be a diplomatic scrap over influence in the new Syria. Interested actors include Turkey, the US, Israel, Russia, some regional Arab nations, HTS, the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army, the Kurdish YPG, and even the remnants of the Assad regime, who represent Syria’s Alawite minority.
These power games should surprise no one. In international politics, it is not uncommon for those who make fists with their right hands to pat each other on the back with their left hands. Over the next few days, we will see a lot of fist-making and back-patting by some very well-versed practitioners.
Drawing a new map
The issue at hand is the redrawing of the map. Syria has already been effectively redrawn and reshaped by events since 2011, with three vertical regions emerging: the Alawite/Nusayri-controlled western coastal region; the Sunni opposition-controlled central region, and the Kurdish/YPG-controlled east.
Whether this equates roughly to any final map remains to be seen, but it is of note that throughout the opposition’s military takeover of Syria’s major cities over the past fortnight, they did not target the coastal Tartus-Banyas-Latakia area, which are Alawite strongholds and home to Russia’s bases. It seems likely that this was agreed between HTS and various actors beforehand.
