Until recently, the Biden administration has publicly insisted that it is conducting vigorous diplomacy to end Israel’s war in Gaza. That war has made Gaza unlivable and likely resulted in well over 100,000 deaths. Healthcare and aid workers have been killed in staggering numbers, and Gaza has been designated the most dangerous place on Earth to be a child. Every week brings new reports of massacres in Gaza as one of the world’s most advanced militaries pounds a densely packed strip of land housing an impoverished, hungry, traumatized, and trapped population.
Over the summer, US President Joe Biden made repeated public assurances that a deal between Israel and Hamas was close to being achieved—one that would ensure the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza and produce a lasting ceasefire. But the deal never happened, and the administration is no longer actively trying to secure a ceasefire, a possibility that has become even more remote as the war has expanded into Lebanon.
What happened?
One possible interpretation is that despite the Biden administration’s best efforts, Israel’s and Hamas’s respective positions were simply too far apart. This is the explanation given by the administration, which claims that because neither Israel nor Hamas wanted an end to the war, there was nothing the United States could do to bring about peace. Some Biden officials disclaim responsibility by essentially saying, “We can’t want this more than they want it.”
But the idea that the United States tried and failed to make peace is mistaken. The facts show that the Biden administration never made a serious effort to secure a genuine and lasting ceasefire in Gaza.
The US conducted diplomacy in a superficial sense but did not make a reasonable effort to change Israel's behaviour
Harrison Mann, former intelligence officer
From day one, the administration committed itself to not placing meaningful pressure on Israel to alter its stated goal—which Biden supported—of "eradicating" and "destroying" Hamas. This is an objective that, as even the spokesperson of Israel's military has conceded, is impossible. After a year of fighting one of the world's most capable militaries, Hamas still controls parts of Gaza. As a recent analysis from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy found, Israel faces a "prolonged guerrilla conflict" that is unlikely to produce a decisive defeat of Hamas.
With an objective that could never be attained, endless war was inevitable. And since Biden had already ruled out using Washington's considerable leverage to force Israel to adopt a realistic goal, diplomatic talks were essentially a performance, doomed from the outset. Honest US officials have now conceded as much. Former intelligence officer Harrison Mann, who resigned from the Defence Intelligence Agency over US support of Israel, has said that Washington conducted diplomacy only "in the most superficial sense" of holding "a lot of meetings" but did not make "any reasonable effort" to change Israel's behaviour.
At first, the United States did not even claim to be trying to obtain a ceasefire in Gaza. Early in the war, even as it rapidly became clear that Israel's response to the October 7, 2023, attacks was wildly disproportionate and caused mass civilian casualties, Biden spurned international calls to push for a ceasefire. The US State Department banned staff from using phrases such as "de-escalation/ceasefire," "end to violence/bloodshed," and "restoring calm." "A ceasefire is not peace," Biden declared in November 2023.
The next month, the United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly for a cease-fire, with only the United States, Israel, and a few smaller nations opposed. Around the same time, Biden said that when he spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he "did not ask for a ceasefire."
The Biden administration has gone so far as to mislead Congress about Israel's actions in order to keep weapons flowing in violation of US law
Instead, the Biden administration pushed for temporary pauses in the fighting—some as little as four hours long—and preserved Israel's right to pursue its aim of eradicating Hamas. (This is Israel's public goal, though credible analysts have suggested the Israeli government's ultimate objective is to ethnically cleanse and resettle at least part of Gaza, a goal many of Netanyahu's ministers have been explicit about.)
This year, the Biden administration has repeatedly told the public it now supports a ceasefire, but Israel has continued to make clear that it has no interest in ending the war before eradicating Hamas. In fact, despite claims that neither Hamas nor Israel wants to see an end to the fighting, a major sticking point of this year's negotiations was Hamas's demand for a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Netanyahu baulked at this, saying in April, "The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question." As the New York Times reported in May, "The main obstacle in the talks was the duration of a ceasefire," with Netanyahu "expressing openness to only a temporary halt in the fighting."
The US State Department has now essentially conceded that its diplomatic manoeuvring was a pretence. Department spokesperson Matthew Miller admitted in September, "We've never wanted to see a diplomatic resolution with Hamas ... We have always been committed to the destruction of Hamas."
He also affirmed that "we ultimately want to see a diplomatic resolution to conflict in the Middle East," but the position is self-contradictory. One can either diplomatically resolve the conflict or shun a diplomatic resolution with Hamas; since Hamas is a party to the conflict, it is impossible to do both.
Meanwhile, Politico reported that senior Biden officials privately told Israel that the United States supports Israel's expansion of the war to Lebanon, even as the administration has publicly implied that it favours negotiations over violence.
Washington has not only been unwilling to meaningfully condition weapons aid, but it has gone so far as to mislead Congress about Israel's actions in order to keep weapons flowing in violation of US law. If Biden had been serious about peace, a basic step would have been to scrupulously enforce existing US laws that block the transfer of weapons to countries that violate human rights.
So why engage in the theatre of diplomacy? If the Biden administration's stance is that Israel is entitled to continue the war until it achieves its own self-defined objectives, what is the point of pretending that there can be a negotiated settlement?
The answer is public opinion. Very few Democrats approve of Israel's conduct in Gaza, and a majority of Americans who voted for Biden want the United States to halt weapons transfers to Israel. Biden knows that a policy that guarantees endless war is unpopular and would create further backlash. He has, therefore, hoped to satisfy both pro-Israel Democrats and critics of the war by continuing to transfer unlimited arms while also appearing to negotiate a peace deal. The diplomacy theatre is an effort to convince the public that Biden's hands are tied—that while he would like to end the war, he simply cannot, and the most powerful country in the world is powerless.
That narrative has been successful. Plenty of people who should know better have accepted at face value the Biden administration's claim that it is trying to bring about peace. At the Democratic National Convention, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has called what is happening in Gaza a "genocide," said that Vice President Kamala Harris "is working tirelessly to secure a ceasefire in Gaza." Much of the media discourse has suggested that Biden's failure shows the "limits of American power," when in fact, it shows no such thing.
One can understand why the Biden administration would want to make a show of its diplomatic efforts. It is indefensible to support the indefinite continuation of a war that can only achieve more death and destruction and that Israel itself has no idea how to end.
But the administration committed itself at the outset to following Israel's lead, a stance incompatible with successful diplomacy, which requires a willingness to exert pressure. Therefore, the United States did not "fail" to achieve a cease-fire because it never even tried.
