How will Trump handle Netanyahu?

His approach combines extremist ideology with unabashed political opportunism. Now Israel's longest serving leader, it has proven to be a remarkably effective strategy since Netanyahu first took office in 1996. 

It lets him beat the drum, stoke the Israeli public's fears, and hold onto power. It has also let him reshape the West Bank, expanding settlements to such a degree that they now physically undermine a two-state solution. 

Settlers call the shots

Today, there are around 700,000 settlers living in 150 settlements and 128 outposts in the West Bank. Many are hardcore religious nationalists with far-right views, who see the land as theirs and God-given. Moreover, they refuse to relinquish it. 

The representatives of these settlers are crucial members of Netanyahu's governing coalition. Two of the most extreme hold the positions of national security minister and finance minister. This helps explain why Netanyahu has responded to the events of 7 October 2023 in the way that he has. 

The erasure of Palestinian cities and camps—including universities, courthouses, hospitals, and essential infrastructure—aims to impose irreversible changes on the land, rendering it uninhabitable and severing its inhabitants' ties. Obliterating sites of collective memory leaves proof of Palestinian belonging lying buried beneath the rubble.

Even if Hamas and Fatah agree on Gaza's governance post-conflict, the ultimate decision lies with Netanyahu, because it is his forces that control the ground. The Israelis see themselves as the final arbiters of Gaza's future, determining if and how it will be rebuilt, and under what conditions the surviving Palestinians will live.

Two down, several to go

A similar approach is unfolding in Lebanon. While Israel ostensibly targets Hezbollah, it also devastates markets and civilian infrastructure—particularly in the south and the Bekaa region—erasing entire villages and hundreds of acres of agricultural land. Israel knows that this will create lasting challenges for Lebanon long after these hostilities cease. 

The demographic shifts, systematic destruction of commercial centres, damage to thousands of homes, and relentless shelling of the southern suburbs and the Bekaa signal that Israel's intentions go far beyond its military objectives.  Instead, it suggests the imposition of a broader political, social, and economic impact on Lebanon.

What Trump lets Netanyahu do when he reclaims his place in the Oval Office in January remains to be seen, but during Trump's first term, he all but gave Netanyahu carte blanche to do whatever he wanted. There is no reason to think 2025-29 will be any different.