Sinwar killing leaves many Israelis wondering: what now?

While many Israelis celebrate the news, others wonder how this will affect the lives of the remaining hostages as both Netanyahu and Hamas double down on their demands

Supporters of the hostages hold placards during a demonstration calling for their release outside the Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv on October 17, 2024.
Oren ZIV / AFP
Supporters of the hostages hold placards during a demonstration calling for their release outside the Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv on October 17, 2024.

Sinwar killing leaves many Israelis wondering: what now?

As the news broke out that Hamas’s chief, Yahya Sinwar, was killed, Israeli commentators and anchors kept repeating the same expression in Hebrew. According to them, it was a “sgirat ma’agal”—the closure of a cycle. The expression was referring to the cycle of violence that began on October 7, with one of the most catastrophic failures in Israel’s history, as thousands of Hamas militants broke through the border wall, attacking border communities and killing young Israelis at a music festival.

The expression may have seemed appropriate as Sinwar’s death was announced almost a year after the attack and as Israel was about to celebrate the Jewish holiday of “Simchat Torah”, during which the massacre, masterminded by Sinwar, was carried out. Some Israelis distributed sweets, others danced, and soldiers celebrated.

But many, although they certainly felt that the death of the “architect” of the October 7 attacks was good news, did not celebrate. In a divided country, reactions to the death of Hamas’s leader followed a familiar fault line between those who see Hamas’s destruction as the top priority and those who feel the “cycle” will not be closed by settling the score but by freeing the hostages. While one part of the country celebrated, the other could not bring itself to do so.

As the news of Sinwar’s potential demise started to circulate, one of the first reactions was one of panic among families of hostages who had been told repeatedly that Sinwar was always surrounded by a number of hostages. Eventually, the Prime Minister’s Office informed the families that no hostages had been wounded during the operation.

Later that day, the Israeli army claimed that Sinwar’s “hostages”, who served as his “life insurance”, were the six Israelis who Hamas had executed in a tunnel in September. This explained why no hostages were near Sinwar at the time of his death and may also explain why he may have needed to move out of the Tal Sultan area in southern Gaza’s Rafah.

Although this meant no hostages were wounded, the feeling of anxiety among families of hostages did not completely disappear—firstly, because of concerns that Hamas cells could exact revenge for the death of their leader by executing more hostages.

Even if this terrible thought for those who have been waiting for their loved ones to return did not materialise, the death of Sinwar also raised a big question mark regarding the negotiations for a hostage-release deal. The families of hostages immediately released a statement urging the government to do everything it could to finally secure a deal that would see the remaining hostages released. Israel’s negotiating team itself had held hours of meetings to discuss the aftermath of this sudden, unexpected development.

'So what?'

Many of those whose loved ones were killed in the October 7 attack also highlighted how anti-climatic the news of Sinwar’s death was—not solely because it was sudden and random, as Sinwar died after encountering regular soldiers rather than in a special force operation. Reacting to Sinwar’s death, the mother of one of the festival-goers said, “ok, he is dead...” as in, so what? What now?

Netanyahu got the image of victory he always wanted, but many in Israel fear the news will do little to satiate his cabinet's appetite for war

For these Israelis, Sinwar's death is cause for celebration only if it does indeed "end the cycle", not by sending the "butcher of Khan Yunis" to the hell all Israelis feel he deserves, but by finally extracting the hostages from the hell they've been living in, one year ago.

Yet, there is no guarantee that Sinwar's death will suddenly break the impasse. Sinwar's demise may offer Netanyahu the "image of victory" he has sought to extract over the past year. The image of the broken body of Israel's greatest enemy may serve to get his far-right allies to stop biting his rear each time the prospect of a deal to end the war and return the hostages grows closer.

But there are those in Israel who take the example of Hezbollah and the assassination of Nasrallah and say, "You need to cast the iron while it is hot". In other words, now is not the time for a deal. Now is the time to press the offensive against Hamas in the same way Israel did with Hezbollah after Nasrallah's death.

The difference, however, is that there is little the Israeli military can do in Gaza other than play a game of whack-a-mole with the remaining Hamas cells in the Palestinian enclave. No amount of additional military pressure can replace a diplomatic and political process to find a Palestinian alternative to Hamas. Yet the Netanyahu government has, time and time again, refused to do so.

The other side of the equation is in Gaza. Hamas has lost one of its most consequential leaders, who brutally gambled with the fate of millions. His staunch refusal to make concessions has also been an obstacle to a deal, just as much as the games Netanyahu played.

The question of who will succeed him is essential: Will Sinwar be replaced by a Hamas leader in exile, potentially more susceptible to diplomatic pressure but also less in control of the situation in Gaza? Or conversely, will Sinwar be replaced by a figure closer to him, such as his brother Mohammed Sinwar, who may be less likely to budge?

A few weeks ago, observers noted an infographic showing a number of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, with marks on those who Israel eliminated. On top of Sinwar was a question mark because, at the time, the Israeli military wasn't sure whether the Hamas leader was still alive or not. Today, though we know for a fact that Sinwar is dead, the question mark as to the impact of this death still remains and has only grown larger.

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