When Egypt sent a second consecutive shipment of arms to Somalia last month, it likely did so with water and Ethiopia in mind, although officially, it was to support a struggling state in the Horn of Africa.
The consignment that arrived at Mogadishu’s port on 23 September was part of an agreement signed in August for Cairo to send weapons and 10,000 troops. It had already sent two C-130 military planes and plans to send 5,000 troops before January and another 5,000 in the new year.
The arms shipments suggest that power shifts are underway in the region amidst an increasingly tense tussle between Egypt and its landlocked rival Ethiopia over water—both in terms of the fresh water provided by the Nile and of Ethiopian access to the Red Sea.
It boils down to water
Egypt gets 90% of its water from the Nile and watches with horror as Ethiopia continues constructing a giant hydroelectric dam on the river upstream without agreement from downstream states. The dam is not a new project—building work began in 2011—but its near completion adds to Cairo's concern over Addis Ababa's territorial ambitions. Addis Ababa would like to be the dominant power in the Nile Basin, and controlling the flow from the primary source of water for Egypt’s 106 million people would certainly give it leverage.
Read more: Ethiopia pushes Egypt into tight corner after Nile dam talks collapse
Separately, Egypt gets billions of dollars in revenue from ships passing through the Suez Canal, but security concerns mean that traffic has been down in recent months. Ethiopia's Red Sea access could add to Egypt’s woes. In this context, Egypt is forging closer military ties with Ethiopia’s coast-hugging neighbour, Somalia. Mogadishu has its own gripes with Addis Ababa, but its military is in no fit state to do anything about it.
Egypt’s military equipment includes ammunition, anti-aircraft guns, and artillery, while its broader assistance includes intelligence gathering. This may help tackle Somalia's multiple threats, some of which are existential. If Somalia becomes a failed state, it would only add to the region’s problems. Cairo says this would have direct consequences for Egypt, which is already dealing with the fallout from conflicts in Gaza, Sudan, Lebanon, and Syria.
Fighting for the coast
Egypt was initially prompt to help Somalia’s armed forces when Ethiopia agreed to recognise Somaliland, a breakaway region in Somalia’s north that borders Djibouti. In January, Ethiopia said it intended to build a naval base and commercial port in Somaliland and lease a stretch of coastline. At the United Nations General Assembly last month, Somalia called this an “annexation” and “a flagrant violation” of its territorial integrity.
Despite the anger, it must tread carefully, not least because Ethiopia has 10,000 troops stationed on the border under the guise of protecting against Islamist incursions. Egypt has long known that Ethiopia, its historic rival, wants to gain access to the coast. A deal with Somaliland would give Addis Ababa a foothold near the Red Sea's southern entrance.
Read more: Why Ethiopia's Red Sea ambitions unnerve Egypt
Keeping Somalia intact
Cairo's geopolitical concerns about the dangers to its national security and economic outlook of a disintegrating Somalia are longstanding. It wants to help Somalia maintain its territorial integrity in the face of looming problems, of which Somaliland's independence ambition is just one. In Somalia's northeast, the state of Puntland has similar hopes.
Any fracturing of Somalia would benefit Ethiopia, which has actively backed the two breakaway regions, including with arms shipments. Yet both Ethiopia and Egypt share worries about al-Qaeda's powerful Somali ally, al-Shabaab.
Ethiopia has spent 40 years attacking al-Shabaab, deploying more than 1,000 troops in Somalia since 2007 under a multilateral African Union mission, yet the terrorist group is still a force to be reckoned with. Ethiopia has argued that Egyptian weapons could end up in al-Shabaab's hands.
A new terrorist alliance
Egypt says its military support will help the small Somali army rebuild and address the al-Shabaab threat, which is now more urgent after the group began working with the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen. The UK raised this as a concern at a UN Security Council meeting in August.
Despite their ideological divergence, the Houthis and al-Shabaab have found ways to cooperate. The Houthis' success in Yemen is now being seen as a template for al-Shabaab, which would dearly like some Iranian weapons.
