With every strike, a Hezbollah-Israel deal slips further away

They revealed leaders whose names were previously unknown, not only to the broader Lebanese public but even to some within Hezbollah leadership, together with their contacts in the Iran-led "Axis of Resistance".

Nasrallah had earlier tried to deter Israel from a full-scale military operation by releasing videos of Israeli military installations and Hezbollah's tunnels. For his part, Hezbollah's deputy leader, Naim Qassem, promised an "open-ended battle of reckoning". Yet it is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who can boast. Through Israel's strikes, he has revealed the extent of Israel's infiltration of Hezbollah and has managed to humiliate the group both publicly and militarily.

Towards a settlement

Most analysts assume this will pile the pressure on Hezbollah ahead of negotiations and with a view to the broader conflict between Israel and Iran. Mohsen Rezaee, a senior Iranian advisor, said recently that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei "does not want a war" with Israel. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed fears of a wider confrontation involving the US, but he also said that Hezbollah "cannot stand alone."

Netanyahu—who is under fire domestically—appears to want a war and to drag the United States into it, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently opined. Israeli officials instead say their air strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon are designed to force the group to cease its own attacks on northern Israel and withdraw from southern Lebanon, allowing Israelis displaced by rocket fire to return home.

The latter was a recent addition to Netanyahu's stated war aims (alongside dismantling Hamas, freeing the hostages, and restoring security deterrence). Nasrallah said this would only happen when displaced Lebanese could return to southern Lebanon.

Then and now

Both sides hope to shape the terms of a diplomatic settlement of the kind that has been agreed upon before. Following the 2006 war, Resolution 1701 (which was never fully implemented) called for the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south and the withdrawal of Hezbollah.

Fast-forward to 2024, and Israel's existential fears have magnified, as have its air strikes on its northern neighbour. Senior Israeli ministers are pleased with what they have seen, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant called the raids "a masterpiece".

At the time of writing, a full-scale war had yet to unfold, and there were still no signs of an Israeli ground incursion. It is unlikely that Israeli soldiers, after a year of fighting in Gaza, will want another ground war so soon.

US envoy Amos Hochstein is working on a ceasefire deal. This includes the withdrawal of the Radwan Force (or what is left of it) to the Litani River. The Lebanese army would then be deployed to fill the void. For their part, the Israelis would end their aerial attacks on Lebanon and withdraw troops from the border, and a UN force would monitor the parties' commitments, including security guarantees allowing displaced Israelis and Lebanese to return home.

To everyone's satisfaction

The 2006 settlement included a ceasefire, limits on Hezbollah to ensure security in northern Israel, commitments to the rules of engagement, and an expanded political role in Beirut. A new settlement may follow a similar formula.

It may also seek to avoid crossing Iran's red line: the dismantling of Hezbollah. The militia, which the Iranians have trained and funded for decades, remains Tehran's primary instrument of influence in the region. Can the war-hungry Netanyahu and the table-thumping Nasrallah, perhaps together with outgoing US President Joe Biden, secure a new settlement? It is quite possible that, in 12 months' time, none of them will still be in a position of power.

Such a deal would be Biden's swansong, but the odds are not good. Sceptics will of course assume that, in Lebanon, things will get worse before they get better. Indeed, that appears to be Netanyahu's strategy.