The world’s crises are increasingly interconnected, but three flashpoints in particular are uniquely intertwined: Syria, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. Why? Because of the involvement of Russia and Iran.
Russia has had a military presence in Syria since intervening there in support of President Bashar al-Assad in 2015. It now uses that presence to project power in the eastern Mediterranean. Around the same time, Iran’s main regional proxy, Hezbollah, also intervened militarily to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Ever since, Iranian ‘advisors’ have been in Syria, just north of Tehran’s No.1 enemy: Israel. In short, both Russia and Iran are active there.
Implications of Maysaf
Syria was the subject of a significant military operation last week, with Israeli special forces attacking a Syrian military compound in the Hama countryside. This may have changed the calculus. Reports suggest that the target was a missile factory in Masyaf. It marks a departure from the hundreds of air strikes Israel has carried out in recent years against “Iranian sites and organisations”.
What made it particularly notable was the target’s proximity to two major Russian military installations: an air base in Latakia and a naval base in Tartus. This means that it was well within the operational range of Russia’s advanced missile defence systems, particularly the S-400. So, either the Israeli operation was conducted with Moscow’s tacit approval, or else the Israelis slipped past Russia’s best technology.
Either way, the implications are significant for Iran, which sees Damascus as an ally. Any Russian collusion with Israel in Syria would be viewed dimly in Tehran. In either scenario, the implications are significant for Iran, which sees Damascus as an ally. Any Russian connivance with Israel in Syria would be viewed dimly in Tehran.
