More so than advisors, Trump’s instincts will make US foreign policy

There are clues as to Trump's foreign policy, and a defence strategy outlines in some detail what his administration hopes to achieve. Yet, he will still shoot from the hip.

How Donald Trump sees the world and the way he makes decisions will help to determine US foreign policy
Nigel Buchanan
How Donald Trump sees the world and the way he makes decisions will help to determine US foreign policy

More so than advisors, Trump’s instincts will make US foreign policy

Very few people (other than Donald Trump himself, perhaps) would describe Donald Trump as an intellectual thinker. He is more someone who likes to make decisions and take actions based on his own quick judgements of any given situation.

As such, there is no set definition of Trumpism, yet here in the summer of 2024, Trumpism appears to be not just movement but—for all intents and purposes—a political party.

Strongly loyal to Trump the man, this movement has its thinkers. They aim to exploit the opportunity another Trump presidency would give them to recast America back to something more closely resembling society half a century ago.

Domestically, the role of the traditional, nuclear, heterosexual family—husband, wife, children—would be reaffirmed and strengthened, promoted by Christian evangelicals.

Others would promote an industrial American economy of private manufacturing and industrial operations, returning to the United States jobs from abroad, most notably China, thereby increasing employment and wages at home.

In parallel, addressing worries of a shrinking American middle-class, Trump and the Republicans plan to slam the brakes on migration and eject immigrants who are employed. This, they believe, would raise the wages of American citizens.

Foreign policy fundaments

Looking beyond the walls, Trump’s natural emphasis is on ‘peace through strength,’ i.e. having the military and economic power to deter potential enemies. He is not seen as keen on foreign entanglements or mutual defence pacts.

Yet Richard Goldberg, who sat on the White House National Security Council during Trump’s first term, told Fox News last month that observers should not mistake Trump’s populist rhetoric with isolationism or an unwillingness to use force.

Iran, he reminded viewers, had tested Trump, and as a result, legendary Iranian Quds Force General Qassem Suleimani was killed in an American drone strike in Iraq on Trump’s orders.

Listen to Trump at campaign rallies, or to the advisors who have worked with him for years, and it soon becomes clear that China is the top threat to American national security as Trump sees it.

Listen to Trump at rallies, or to his advisors, and it soon becomes clear that China is the top threat to American national security as he sees it

Robert O'Brien, Trump's last National Security Advisor, told CBS News in June that America's top national security priority is deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Goldberg told Fox News that Trump would build up the US military, modernise it, and expand the use of Artificial Intelligence and space weapons "to ensure that we are able to overpower the Chinese Communist Party".

Trump's take on allies

Trump has long thought US allies should spend more on their own military defence capabilities, rather than simply relying on America for protection.

O'Brien hit a similar note, telling CBS that "the American taxpayer alone cannot deter" China. America, he noted, already had a huge budget deficit.

For Trump, the likes of Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines must do more to deter China, likewise Europe must do more to deter Russia, including by increasing the amount of aid it gives Kyiv to fight Russia, given that Ukraine is in Europe's backyard.

The same logic applies to the Middle East. Project 2025, a detailed plan for the next Trump administration (prepared in large part by former Trump administration officials) notes that America's partners in the region should do more to deter Iran.

Reuters
Activist Nadine Seiler wears a sign reading "Vote, Stop Project 2025," in reference to a set of conservative policy proposals, outside the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024.

Chris Miller, who wrote much of the Project 2025 defence strategy, was Trump's last defence secretary. He recommended that Gulf states, working individually and collectively, should "take more of a lead on coastal, air, and missile defence".

This would help America deploy adequate forces to Asia against China, he said, adding that the US should sell more advanced equipment to its regional partners to increase their strength, with the added benefit that these sales would support US industry.

Impact on the Middle East

In 2019, Trump vetoed a resolution that would have ended US military assistance to Saudi Arabia for its military campaign in Yemen (his 2024 presidential rival Kamala Harris voted in favour from the Senate to block arms sales to Riyadh).

Trump advisors and Congressional Republicans agree that while China is the top threat, Iran is also a major problem. Last month, Trump told the Republican National Convention that Tehran was close to producing a nuclear weapon.

AFP
An Iranian long-range Ghadr missile displaying "Down with Israel" in Hebrew is pictured at a defence exhibition in city of Isfahan, central Iran, on February 8, 2023.

In April, he claimed Iran had over $230bn in cash reserves, and that Iraq—which he sees as an Iranian subsidiary—had $300bn, yet in Trump's telling, Iran was bankrupt by the time he left the White House in January 2021 (it is unclear where Trump came up with these figures).

The Republicans call for stronger sanctions against Iran, and the diplomatic strategy in Project 2025 is to assist "the Iranian people" to re-establish freedom in the country.

In 2019, Trump vetoed a resolution that would have ended US military assistance to Saudi Arabia for its military campaign in Yemen

Trump would not abandon the Middle East, it says. Without US leadership, it said the region "may tumble further into chaos or fall victim to American adversaries."  

Interestingly, just as the four-way US-Japan-Korea-India alliance aims to deter Chinese aggression, so the diplomatic strategy in Project 2025 urges the assembly of a new four-way US-Israel-Egypt-Gulf states alliance to deter Iran.

It is worth nothing that, when running the US State Department, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tried to assemble just such a grouping in 2018-19, but made little headway. It is unclear whether he would have any more success today.

Stronger backing for Israel

Time Magazine asked Trump in April whether he would go to war to protect Israel. He did not answer directly, but said: "I've been very loyal to Israel. I will protect Israel."

AFP
Former US President Donald Trump looks on in the courtroom, during his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments linked to extramarital affairs, in New York City, on April 29, 2024.

In March, he criticised the Israeli government not for disproportionate or excessive force, as most have, but for not applying maximum force without restraint and thus prolonging the war. Israel was losing the PR war, he said, and had to accelerate.

Congressional Republicans and Christian evangelicals strongly support Israel's goal of eliminating Hamas and urge more political and military support to help it do so.

Project 2025's diplomatic strategy calls for Washington to ensure that "Israel can defend itself against Iran and its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad".

While Democrats offer verbal support for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, Trump told Time that he doubted whether a two-state solution was still possible. "Fewer people like the idea than four years ago," he said, offering no alternative.

In March, his influential son-in-law and former advisor Jared Kushner (who, like Trump, made his money in real estate) said Israel could move Gazans out of Gaza to clean it up because "Gaza's waterfront property could be very valuable".

On Turkey and Syria

The Project 2025 diplomatic strategy recommends reduced ties with the Palestinian Authority but strengthened ties with Turkey to make sure it stays in the Western camp, given the bigger goal of sidelining Russia.

Yet since 2014 Washington has worked with armed Kurdish groups in northern Syria, notably when US special forces partnered them to defeat Islamic State terrorists.

Ankara sees these Kurdish groups as existential threats to its security, however, meaning that any US-Turkey rapprochement, would likely require the Americans to end their support to groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces.

Since 2014, Washington has worked with armed Kurdish groups in northern Syria, yet Ankara sees these groups as existential threats

In 2018, Trump wanted to withdraw all US forces from Syria after the final IS territorial stronghold fell, but officials at the Pentagon convinced him to leave a reduced American contingent. US soldiers remain in Syria to this day.

Turning to Team Trump

Trump loyalists are convinced that government bureaucracy delayed and blocked many of their initiatives during the first Trump presidency. In any second administration, they plan to fight what they call "the deep state".

They aim to do so by firing thousands of government workers who are not "loyal" to Trump and who may want to stymie his plans. Unions will use the courts to resist moves to fire government employees, but Trump's team is confident it will prevail.

As to who would be in Trump's cabinet, he is obsessed with loyalty—to him, personally. His perception of a candidate's loyalty will be a key factor in his choices. Known for making sudden and often surprising decisions, his cabinet nominees are hard to predict.

Several politicians are thought to be liked and trusted by Trump, including Pompeo. Trump made him CIA director before making him Secretary of State. Some think Pompeo could be the new defence secretary.

AFP
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo speaks to the press during a tour of the newly inaugurated Al-Fattah Al-Alim Mosque 45km east of Cairo, Egypt, on January 10, 2019.

A pragmatist who Trump trusted to talk to the Taliban and negotiate the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, his personality and experience would give him influence at cabinet level, and he is known to take a hard line on China and Iran.

Miller, who authored the defence strategy in Project 2025, may also be in the running for a top job, while over at the Department of State, Robert O'Brien was Trump's last National Security Advisor. Politico recently suggested O'Brien for Secretary of State.

O'Brien has experience, having been an advisor to several Republican politicians. In the first Trump administration, he negotiated the release of US hostages in places like Yemen before moving to the National Security Council.

He is tough on China and keen on NATO but, like Trump, thinks European allies need to increase their military spending and take a greater role in helping Ukraine.

Media reports also name Senator Bill Hagerty, Trump's ambassador to Japan, as a possible Secretary of State or Treasury Secretary if Trump wins the White House. In 2020, Trump helped Hagerty get elected to the Senate.

All follow the leader

Like Pompeo, Miller, and O'Brien, Hagerty would follow Trump's direction on China, Iran, and Israel. None will worry about the Palestinians. They would negotiate hard with allies over trade and costs related to military deployments, winning them no friends.

Like Pompeo, Miller, and O'Brien, Hagerty would follow Trump's direction on China, Iran, and Israel. None will worry about the Palestinians

While they all seem comfortable with short, sharp military strikes against adversaries when the US is challenged, they could all be far more careful about America getting dragged into extended and costly military operations abroad.

Reuters
Chinese warship Luyang III sails near the US destroyer USS Chung-Hoon in the Taiwan Strait, on June 3, 2023.

Kevin Roberts, head of the Heritage Foundation team that wrote the Project 2025 strategy, warned against this, saying any new Trump administration should "be on guard against being drawn into conflicts that do not justify great loss of American treasure or significant shedding of American blood".

If Donald Trump once again wins America's hearts, his first term will mean he is savvier in office second time round. Yet he is still likely to manage situations and crisis in a similar manner, using his judgement to make quick decisions.

In some ways, that is Trumpism.

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