July 2024 will go down in history as an extraordinary month in American politics, not least because the former president and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump narrowly escaped an assassination attempt.
Days later, his Democratic rival President Joe Biden withdrew from the November ballot after concerns over his age and health spooked the party. His vice-president Kamala Harris duly grabbed the baton.
As the election campaign unfolds, America finds itself deeply polarised and divided, perhaps more so than at any other time in recent history.
Building to November
Both the presidential candidates have had luck. Trump was lucky the bullets missed, while Harris was lucky that her boss stumbled and stuttered when he did. Both have a dedicated party base and millions of dollars on which to draw. Now, the polling has narrowed. The race is suddenly tight.
While Biden was on the ticket, it was Trump’s to lose, but Harris is a different proposition. Suddenly, voters feel like they have a choice. The result could depend on who wins states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. The term ‘swing states’ has never felt more appropriate.
Our fascination with American elections is not new. The United States is still the world’s foremost military power by some considerable distance, even if there is a steady shift from unipolarity to multipolarity.