The effects of a Trump or Harris presidency on the Middle East

Notably, he did not order a military response when oil installations in Saudi Arabia were hit. His is an 'America First' approach to security. In any second term, Trump can be expected to continue this overall direction. 

Yet again, he will be a very strong supporter of Israel, although he has urged Netanyahu to end the ongoing war in Gaza before he assumes office. On his watch, he wants no new Middle East wars that the US gets dragged into.

Second term plans

His relations with Netanyahu have been strained, but he will continue to support a strong Israeli right-wing position, distancing himself from a two-state solution. He is likely to go along with Israeli preferences for post-war Gaza and the West Bank.

He will double down on the Abraham Accords and work to bring Saudi Arabia into the fold. In that regard, he would favour a win-win defence and nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia but would have a hard time passing it as a formal US treaty with a two-thirds majority in the Senate, since most democrats would not vote for it. 

On Iran, he will likely go back to his previous tack of crippling sanctions that the Biden administration have let slide, but will face a difficult decision if Iran moves closer to acquiring a nuclear weapon.

On the one hand, he has said he would not allow that. On the other, he has run three presidential campaigns on the principle of 'no more Middle East wars.' Remember: Trump is a deal-maker. If Iran opts to, he could be open to talking. 

On the military side, he is likely to preside over US withdrawals from both Syria and Iraq, while maintaining America's presence elsewhere in the region. He will work with regional allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia to strengthen defences against missiles and drone, and consolidated an anti-Iran coalition. 

Clues to Kamala

Kamala Harris is a more unknown quantity, especially in foreign affairs. Although she served in the White House for the past four years, she generally followed Biden's lead, given his decades of experience in foreign policy. 

Before that, she had a short tenure in the Senate and 20 years as a public prosecutor in California. She does have an international family background, but limited international foreign policy experience. 

In some ways, in terms of policy, we can understand a Harris presidency as a second Biden term, or even a fourth Obama term, in the sense that the advisers and officials who would staff her administration will largely be drawn from the same pool.  

How she acts and reacts to foreign policy issues and crises if she is president, however, will be a real test of character and remain largely unknown, including by her.

What we can say initially is that she will conform to the general bipartisan support for Israel, but she has already staked out a position of sympathy for the Palestinians. That represents a significant shift, led by young Democrat voters. 

In that sense, she might be closer to former US President Jimmy Carter's position on Israel, which was to be supportive but not at the expense of Palestinian rights. 

Harris's options

Netanyahu might be rushing to settle scores with his enemies in the Middle East because he knows that the White House may soon grow frosty if Harris wins.

Harris will put the two-state solution back on the table, but if Israel is unwilling to move in that direction, she is unlikely to make much progress in that direction. 

She would continue Biden's efforts to strike a three-way deal between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, that would include security agreements with Saudi Arabia. This may face obstacles in Israel unless Israeli voters elect a new national leadership.

If Harris did secure a three-way deal, she would probably get it passed as a treaty in the Senate, given that several Republican supporters of Israel could vote for it. 

In the Gulf, she may not be met with the same warm embrace that Trump was, nor will she have his business savvy, but as president she will soon appreciate the profound significance of US interests in the region, whether in terms of security, energy, investment, technology, or just counterbalancing China. 

With regards to Iran, Harris will continue Biden's policy of trying to revive a deal that brings back international monitoring while maintaining moderate sanctions. Whether it engages or not will be a choice for Tehran.

If elected, she will have to learn quickly how to make military decisions, initially leaning on the advice of her generals, as is natural. 

Change and continuity

Whoever occupies the White House from January 2025 will certainly represent a contrast in style to Joe Biden, and policy will no doubt differ in certain areas. 

Yet it is also important to note that most American interests abroad are enduring, and will remain the same even if the centre of power in Washington shifts.

As the 21st century motors past the quarter-century mark, the US needs to recognise that most big developments in the Middle East will now be decided by the main players in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Iran and Turkey. 

Outside players, like the US, will still have an important influence, but they are unlikely to determine the trajectories of war, peace, and economic prosperity in the way they once did. That is something that everyone will have to get used to.