Her would-be V-Ps: Kamala Harris now needs a running mate

Certainly, when speaking about the Palestinians in Gaza, her tone differs from that of Biden or Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.

Politico News reported in December that Harris was privately urging Biden to be more sensitive to Palestinian suffering. Some observers feel she would have called for a ceasefire long before Biden did.

Positions on Israel

In March, NBC News reported that the White House National Security Council had softened her criticism of Israel, in a speech that her aides had put together.

Harris stressed in the speech that Israel should not impose unnecessary restrictions on aid flows and should ensure that its military did not attack humanitarian aid workers, their buildings, or their convoys.

In public, Harris repeats the Biden administration policy that security for Gaza and Israel—and reconstruction and governance in post-conflict Gaza—depend on a clear political vision for a future Palestinian state led by a reformed Palestinian Authority.

Like others in the Biden administration and the Democratic Party, she has never discussed publicly how to achieve a two-state solution.

Although sympathetic to Palestinian rights, this has not diminished her longstanding support for Israel's security and its right to defend itself, and she has emphasised that Hamas cannot control Gaza in the future.

In 2017, when she was a Senator, Harris condemned a UN Security Council resolution classifying Israeli settlements in the West Bank as illegal.

Likewise, while some expected her to urge Biden to halt arms shipments to Israel (to put pressure on Tel Aviv to change its tactics over Gaza), she reportedly did not do so. Had she done, it would almost certainly have leaked.

Views on the Middle East

Her language supporting a two-state solution mirrors that of most Democrats, as does her approach to other Middle East issues, like her criticism of Donald Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran that had been negotiated by Barack Obama and his then Secretary of State, John Kerry.

As a presidential candidate in 2020, she said she would try to restore the agreement if Iran agreed to return to compliance monitoring, yet she is also strong on human rights issues in the region.

She criticised US support for Saudi Arabia in Yemen, but unlike some Democrats, she praised Riyadh as a good partner in counterterrorism, and since becoming Vice President, she has not publicly raised any human rights issues with Arab partners.

After her December 2023 meeting in Dubai with Mohamed bin Zayed, the US Embassy issued a statement saying she reaffirmed to the Emirati leader America's enduring commitment to the security of the UAE and to the importance of bilateral trade.

Four years ago, she emphasised the importance of diplomacy, international law, multilateral institutions, and US alliances. She also said that Washington had launched too many wars that had either failed or that had destabilised other regions.

Harris's approach to the world, and to the Middle East in particular, is closer to that of Barak Obama and Joe Biden than to Hillary Clinton. Indeed, her top foreign policy advisor—Philip Gordon—was a senior official during the Obama administration.

In 2018, Gordon published Losing the Long Game in which he concluded that George W. Bush's War in Iraq and Obama's support for protesters in Egypt, Libya, and Syria had ended up boosting Islamist extremism, which became a huge problem.

Policy aside, the third big challenge for Harris is choosing the best vice-presidential candidate for November. Some analysts think that, as a woman of colour, she may choose a white male, possibly from one of the big swing states, to reassure voters.

Here, we review some of the more serious contenders for a senior position in her team.

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Mark Kelly

Senator Mark Kelly was a US navy pilot during the 1991 Iraq war and a frontrunner to get a senior job in Harris's team. His military experience could help her politically, especially since Donald Trump's running mate, JD Vance, also was a soldier.

While Vance wants the US to leave the Middle East and focus on China, Kelly urges continued American attention to the region, backing security cooperation with regional states to combat terrorism and deter Iran.

In May 2022, Kelly voted in the Senate to urge Biden to include Iran's regional activities in any negotiations about a new nuclear agreement, and to keep sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

Since his election to the Senate in 2020, he has made several trips to the region, including a 2022 tour of states that signed the Abraham Accords during which he emphasised the accords' boost regional stability.

In recent months, Kelly said Israel "has every right" to defend itself and to try to dismantle Hamas, this being of vital national interest. Yet he has also publicly criticised Israeli settlement building in the West Bank.

He also joined most other Senate Democrats in January in an amendment that reaffirmed political support for a two-state solution (without specifying how that should be achieved or based on).

Like Harris, Kelly has spoken publicly of Israel's duty to protect Palestinian civilians during its war in Gaza and to allow humanitarian aid in.  

He has also criticised Israel's use of unguided bombs in Gaza and urged the use of more precision-guided bombs "like I used to drop in Iraq".

In May, he said that placing conditions on military aid to Israel would be appropriate if Israel continued killing large numbers of civilians in Gaza.

Despite his attributes, Harris will be mindful that Kelly is from Arizona, which borders her own state of California. For a wider geographical spread, she may favour candidates from America's central or eastern areas.

Josh Shapiro

The governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, is getting some mentions. He has a strong political base in the vital state of Pennsylvania, is proud of his Jewish heritage, and defends Israel to a bigger degree.

He said Israel did not provoke the 7 October attacks by Hamas and that those who argue as such are "ignorant and wrong." He also said that while it was "fair game" to protest Israeli policies, linking all Jews to Israeli government policies was antisemitic.

In April, Shapiro wrote on Twitter/X that Iran was "the biggest exporter of terrorism worldwide", adding that "Pennsylvania stands with Israel". He also called for peace in the Middle East and security for the Israeli people.

In the past, Shapiro has expressed support for the two-state solution, and last January called Prime Minister Netanyahu "one of the worst leaders of all time". Unlike Kelly, however, Shapiro has no experience of dealing with Arab state leaders.

Roy Cooper

Harris has long known North Carolina's Governor, Roy Cooper. Like her, he was a state Attorney General. Aged 67, he now confronts a Republican majority in the state legislature over criminal justice reform and abortion, issues of importance to Harris.

Like Shapiro and most American governors, he has little role in foreign policy and little experience with it. He supported Israel after the 7 October attack and criticised Hamas. He also supports state laws that punish companies that boycott Israel.

However, in March, he said Israel's war in Gaza was having a "devastating" impact on innocent Palestinian civilians. Shapiro, by contrast, has not made similar comments. Cooper also has been less critical of anti-Israel protests over than Shapiro has.

He emphasised in his March interview that he backs a two-state solution but offered no ideas about how to achieve it, except for saying that "Arab states must come together".

Andy Beshear

Like Cooper, the Democratic Governor of Kentucky, Andy Beshear, must work with a state legislature under Republican control. Both can claim to have successfully brought investment and jobs to their states, despite the political divisions.

Beshear, 46, has little experience outside America except for two trips (to Asia and Europe) to talk about business investment in Kentucky. Like the others, he supports Israel and has criticised Hamas over the 7 October attack, saying "every family deserves safety from violence."

He called the Hamas attack "terrorism" but said his focus was on the safety of groups from Kentucky churches who were visiting Israel.

Protesters have complained that Beshear has not criticised the Gaza war, despite him having no political need to speak about the Middle East.

Respected University of Kentucky political scientist Stephen Voss wrote in May that the great majority of people in Kentucky—and America—do not care much about Gaza and the Middle East. Whether that is true may well become apparent in the campaign.