There may be reason to believe that one of the Middle East's iciest relationships may be showing the first signs of a thaw.
If the signs are to be read correctly, Turkey's President Erdoğan is becoming more and more forthcoming in his calls to meet Syria's President Assad.
In response to a question at a press conference after the NATO Summit in Washington DC last week, Erdoğan said he had called on Assad to visit Turkey or meet in a third country.
He tasked Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to lay the groundwork to overcome the ill feelings between Ankara and Damascus.
On his way back from Washington, Erdoğan stated that the United States and Iran should welcome and support these positive developments.
He also said that terrorist organisations will do their best to sabotage this process but Turkey is prepared.
Erdoğan’s references reflect his concerns as to which parties might negatively impact on normalisation efforts.
Becoming pragmatic
Clearly, Erdoğan has ended his policy of “Syria without Assad” and started trying to solve Syrian problems in cooperation with Assad.
Assad had conditioned his meeting with Erdoğan on Turkey’s withdrawal of its troops from north of Syria and Turkey responded that talks could only resume without preconditions.
Turkish experts on the issue emphasise that Turkey does not wish to stay in northern Syria indefinitely but needs a system that guarantees that Turkey will not be targeted from an area Erdoğan labeled 'Terroristan'.
Syria’s latest direct response came not from Assad but through a written statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
This said “the interest of both countries is based on the sound relationship between them, not on confrontation or hostility" and the return of normal relations with Turkey should be based on the return of the situation that prevailed before 2011.
Stepping carefully
The Syrian Ministry emphasised that “any initiative for normalisation must be built on clear foundations that ensure the desired results, foremost of which is the withdrawal of illegally present forces from the Syrian territory, and the fight against terrorist groups that threaten not only Syria’s security, but also the security of Turkey”.
In that statement, Syria also expressed “its gratitude and appreciation to the brotherly and friendly countries that are making sincere efforts to correct the Syrian-Turkish relations”.
Normalisation efforts are being mediated by Russia, with Iraq also said to be playing a role, but there are major issues still to be addressed.
Obstacles to overcome
The first sticking point is that the Syrian opposition has created its own ecosystem in north-west Syria and their existence relies on Turkey’s support. Recent protests in the opposition-held areas in the north were mainly triggered by the anger and fear of being exposed if Turkey and Syria reconcile.
Second, the militants (especially armed jihadist and extremist groups, as well as other Syrians who do not want to live under Assad's rule) have only one place to go: Turkey. Yet it would be odd for Ankara to receive new Syrians whilst trying to return the Syrians already in the country.
Third, the YPG (trained and equipped by the US as its partner against IS), is keen to keep its gains as an autonomous entity. Erdoğan has said he will not allow a 'Terroristan' across its borders.
The return of Syrian refugees has also become a major political debate in Turkey and the government is trying to repatriate them, but it is limited in terms of what it can legally do unless Damascus cooperates.
Syria's five million
After the Cabinet meeting on 1 July, Erdoğan reassured the Syrian opposition, by saying that Turkey would not betray the trust of anyone. “Turkey is not a state that lets its friends down,” he said. Turkish officials have met representatives of the Syrian opposition groups in order to reassure them.
North-west Syria, with around five million people, is not only populated by residents from Aleppo and Idlib but also members of armed groups, their families, and others from Homs, Hama, Damascus/East Ghouta and Daraa who moved to the north after the de-escalation zone agreements in 2017, because they did not want to live under Assad's rule.
As things stand, these people have no intention of making peace with Assad, at least under the current circumstances.
Despite these difficulties, Turkish and Syrian officials (mainly intelligence officers) are probably meeting under Russian mediation somewhere, to try to lay out the groundwork for a possible Erdogan-Assad meeting.
Same old Assad
Assad has retained his seat in Damascus, is back in the Arab League, and is making some progress in international relations, but he has not changed his policies, including the brutal practices that led to the uprising in 2011.
He maintains his current stance against the opposition by refusing to integrate them. Free elections and the sharing of power remain distant Syrian dreams. Under the current dire economic conditions, armed conflict is likely to continue.
In the meantime, Russia and Syria continue bombing Idlib act as stark reminders to the opposition and Turkey of the possibility of a new wave of refugees.
Turkish opposition parties say Erdoğan’s enthusiasm to reconcile with Assad (who he called a "murderer") are clear proof of the failure of his policies in Syria.
The leader of the main opposition party CHP, Özgür Özel, plans a visit to Damascus soon, to meet Assad. His declared objective is to facilitate normalisation between Ankara and Damascus but the Syrian side has not confirmed that such a visit will take place.
In terms of refugees and returns, Syria is the source of the problem. Syrians who have fled are much more likely to return if favourable social, economic, and security conditions are established in their home country.
Fashioning a future
Syria has to take some steps and it will obviously need the help of the international community. It also has to use its own resources.
The YPG/PKK, under the protective American umbrella, controls all of Syria's oil fields. It finances its activities by selling the oil it extracts from these fields to a range of buyers, including the Assad regime, jihadist groups, and the opposition in the north-west.
Instead, these resources should be used to rebuild Syria and create conditions to facilitate refugess' return.
The Syria crisis is not just a bilateral issue between Turkey and Syria, and a comprehensive solution will be needed to be able to say that this crisis is over.
UN Security Council Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015 and acceptd by Russia and even Damascus, is still the best option to form the framework for a comprehensive political settlement in Syria.
All these demonstrate that even if Erdogan and Assad meet in the coming weeks, it is likely that the process will take years.
