Since the outbreak of war in Gaza last October, scenarios for ‘the day after’ have been suggested, analysed and debated. Most relied on the assumption of Israeli war aims being swiftly fulfilled, but nine months later, hostages remain unrecovered, and Hamas remains intact, still posing a threat to Israel, although its forces have been significantly diminished.
Meanwhile, the war has inflicted unprecedented suffering, displacement, and destruction. Still, the question remains: What next? In our July cover story, we examine five possible scenarios and the looming threat of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
Planning for change
The perspectives of Palestinian, Israeli, American, and Arab states are aired, as are the different options—which vary from continued Israeli military presence to a multinational force to prevent any Hamas resurgence. Some suggest limited Hamas control, others complete disengagement from Gaza with the closure of border crossings, as advocated by some Israelis. Other Israelis want to reoccupy Gaza, establish a civil administration, and impose martial law.
Issues of security and governance in the Gaza Strip are complex. The Biden White House has been discussing ideas, including a multinational administrative authority reporting to an international contact group. The region would be involved. These entities would flow from an international agreement involving Arab states, ideally through a UN Security Council resolution. We examine the possibilities and report on what the people of Gaza want.
