Iran scales back fuel exports to Syria amid strained relations

As per a report from a regime-affiliated newspaper, the Syrian government is addressing the ongoing fuel crisis by tapping into its strategic reserves. Additionally, austerity measures have been implemented to regulate oil derivative consumption. For example, the fuel subcommittee in Damascus has ceased providing fuel to private minibuses, internal transport buses, and employee shuttle buses on Fridays and Saturdays.

Similarly, the oil ministry has reduced fuel allocations to the provinces and postponed sending subsidised gasoline notifications to car owners. Consequently, there has been a surge in demand on the black market, resulting in a notable increase in fuel prices, reaching unprecedented levels.

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While the fuel shortage has been acknowledged by all, the underlying reasons remain subject to debate. Regime officials attribute the recent halt in oil supplies to financial difficulties and the impact of economic sanctions imposed on the regime. Meanwhile, they have assured that supplies will return to normal promptly.

Primary reason

However, analysts argue that the primary reason is the growing strain in relations between Tehran and the al-Assad regime. Nevertheless, various speculations exist regarding the reasons behind this tension. Many Syria observers suggest that tensions arose due to the al-Assad government's reluctance to fulfil agreements signed with Iran, particularly those concluded last summer. Consequently, Iran has reportedly reduced crude oil supplies to Syria to pressure the al-Assad government to meet Iranian demands.

These sources support their argument by noting that this is not the first instance of Iran using oil shipments to Syria as leverage on al-Assad to secure economic concessions. In 2023, Iranian oil exports to Syria were reportedly suspended for similar reasons.

They were then resumed after al-Assad agreed to make economic concessions to Iran, a move solidified during President Ibrahim Raisi's historic visit to Damascus in May 2023. During that visit, a series of agreements spanning various sectors, including oil, agriculture, railways, and free trade zones, were signed.

Other sources, however, suggest that the growing strain in relations between Tehran and the al-Assad regime stems from differences between the two on various political files, including Damascus's responses to the war in Gaza. While the Syrian regime has indeed distanced itself from the regional escalation triggered by Israel's war in Gaza, there is no public evidence to confirm that this has strained relations between Tehran and al-Assad.

Regardless of the underlying motives, the reduction in Iranian fuel supplies to Syria is poised to deepen the suffering of civilians in al-Assad-controlled areas. Furthermore, Tehran's hold over al-Assad's regime will persist as long as Damascus remains heavily dependent on Iranian oil.  This situation not only impacts Syria's energy sector but also carries wider implications for its political and economic trajectory.