The war in Sudan has entered its second year, and the path towards peace remains elusive. Three possible scenarios are that either the army will win the war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will win, or the country will be divided into two de facto states, each under the control of its respective factions.
An army victory is looking increasingly unlikely as the RSF is in control of four out of five of Darfur's states and the Al-Jazira state. It also has a strong presence in Khartoum and Kordofan and continues to receive regional and international support, including weapons, equipment, and political, diplomatic, and media backing. This support enables it to sustain the war and shield its leaders from accountability for the crimes and human rights abuses committed by its soldiers.
But for all this support, it is unlikely that the RSF will be able to pull off an all-out victory and take control of the whole country. It has suffered a series of setbacks in Khartoum, and public resistance to the militia is growing due to its well-documented human rights abuses that have garnered global condemnation. These crimes include: occupying homes, looting, sectarian-based killings, genocide, rape, and kidnapping.
And no amount of political backing for the RSF can whitewash these crimes. Meanwhile, propaganda efforts to cover up its abuses have badly backfired and have only fuelled more public outrage.
A divided Sudan
Having said all this, the third scenario seems increasingly likely to materialise. In this scenario, Sudan would be effectively divided into two territories, similar to what happened in Libya.