In April 2023, shortly after the outbreak of war in Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia escalated its attacks across the five states of Darfur, aiming to seize and fortify the western region of the country.
Sudan’s porous borders with Chad, Libya, and the Central African Republic facilitated ongoing support for the RSF, such as the supply of weapons and fuel.
In May 2023, the RSF massacred the Masalit community in places like El Geneina, Furbaranga, Ardumta, and Kerenik in West Darfur state.
The Committee of Experts on Darfur, established under UN Security Council Resolution 1591, say 15,000 people were killed in El Geneina alone.
They also noted that targeted assassinations included the murder of Khamis Abkar, the governor of West Darfur, and Masalit leaders. Several mass graves have been found. One in El Geneina contains the remains of at least 1,000 victims.
The continuing atrocities have triggered mass displacement. Hundreds of thousands fled to refugee camps in Chad. Similar numbers are displaced within Sudan itself.
Following their consolidation of power in West Darfur, the RSF expanded their control into the southern, central, and eastern states of Darfur.
North Darfur’s fate
To date, only North Darfur state and its capital, El Fasher, have evaded the roving RSF. Therefore, El Fasher has become a refuge for those displaced from other Darfur regions.
The military landscape in North Darfur is fragmented. Darfuri armed groups, who declared neutrality at the start of the conflict, control parts of the state. The Sudanese army governs the west, while the RSF dominates the east.
In November 2023, the RSF mobilised to attack North Darfur and El Fasher but halted their advance after international pressure and threats. El Fasher hosts hundreds of thousands displaced by the RSF's violence elsewhere in Darfur.
The state's governor, Nimr Abdel-Rahman, is affiliated with the Sudan Liberation Movement-Transitional Council led by Al-Hadi Idris, which is part of the Taqaddum Coalition that has close ties to the RSF. Analysts think this played a crucial role in deterring the militia's invasion of the state.
Recently, the Darfuri armed groups renounced their neutrality, exacerbated by the RSF's racial and ethnic targeting of African-origin tribes in Darfur and their tactical setbacks, such as losing control over the city of Omdurman in Khartoum State.
They have now pledged their support to the Sudanese army. This caused a rift within the Al-Hadi Idris faction, though Idris retained his position within the Coordination Council of Taqaddum.
Salah Rassas, the deputy head of the movement, then announced the dismissal of Idris from the presidency of their faction.
Subsequently, a group of officers led by Brig. Gen. Al-Sadiq Muhammad Daw Al-Bayt, Col. Siddiq Musa Arbab Abdel Rahman, and Lt. Col. Abdul Qadir Muhammad Yahya renounced their neutrality and pledged to align with the Sudanese army.
Idris and Nimr Abdel-Rahman then both the state and the country, while the RSF, facing setbacks in the field, resumed its efforts to invade El Fasher. This resurgence in military activity coincides with the upcoming Jeddah Platform negotiations, which the militia is reluctant to enter from a weakened strategic position.