Will Michigan's primary protest vote spread to other states?

Biden's re-election campaign is keeping a close eye on the emerging "uncommitted" vote against his administration’s strong support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

Will Michigan's primary protest vote spread to other states?

US President Joe Biden may have achieved a comfortable victory in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary this week, but his campaign will nevertheless be keeping a close eye on the significant protest vote against his administration’s strong support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

US support for Israel’s unremitting military offensive in Gaza has provoked widespread anger among America’s sizeable Arab-American population, as well as wide swathes of Democrat and younger voter base.

Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected Biden’s calls for a ceasefire, insisting that the demands Hamas is making in return for agreeing to release more than 100 Israeli hostages are “delusional”. The Israeli premier insists Israel’s military offensive in Gaza will only end when “total victory” has been achieved against Hamas.

Read more: Netanyahu's 'absolute victory' in Gaza looks increasingly unlikely

Having argued strongly against Israel’s plan to extend its military offensive against Gaza's southern city of Rafah, Biden responded this week that Israel could "lose support from around the world" if it "keeps up with this incredibly conservative government they have".

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is still working on its plan to implement a wide-ranging ceasefire plan, which would involve Hamas releasing Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners gaining their freedom, that would be implemented in time for the holy month of Ramadan, which begins on 10 March.

Biden's re-election campaign is keeping a close eye on the significant protest vote against his administration's strong support for Israel in its war on Gaza.

This is despite Hamas also expressing doubts about the plan, with a spokesman claiming the agreement negotiated so far "does not fulfil our demands".

Biden's support for Israel has been decried by more and more Americans, who are especially critical of the US's provision of weapons that Israel is using on Palestinians in Gaza. The United Nation's top court has accused Israel of plausible genocide.

The US has remained a close ally of Israel despite the arguments that have arisen between the two allies over the Israeli military's prosecution of the war. Meanwhile, Washington continues to provide Israel with billions of dollars in military aid.

Read more: Why unconditional US support for Israel must stop

Earlier this month, the US vetoed a UN resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza while proposing its own draft for a temporary ceasefire.

Dwindling re-election prospects

The deepening controversy in the US over Washington's continuing support for Israel has led to growing concerns within Biden's re-election campaign team that the Gaza conflict could have a negative impact on his re-election prospects and could ultimately deny him his quest to serve a second term as president.

These were certainly some of the conclusions the Biden team will have drawn from the Michigan primary where, despite Biden winning 81% of the vote, there was also a sizeable protest vote by so-called "uncommitted" voters against Biden's continuing support for Israel in the Gaza conflict.

Following what happened in Michigan's primary, the fear now is that the protest vote could spread to other states, seriously undermining Biden's re-election chances.

The fear now is that the protest vote could spread to other states, seriously undermining Biden's re-election chances, with the "uncommitted" result bolstering similar protest efforts underway in states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Protesters have certainly used the Michigan primary as an opportunity to register their opposition to Biden's approach to the Gaza conflict, with an estimated 100,000 protesters taking part in a demonstration organised by the campaign group "Listen to Michigan".

The organisers, moreover, have pledged to maintain the pressure on the Biden administration to back a ceasefire in Gaza and limit foreign aid to Israel.

"What is clear is that our president has a choice before him," commented Abdullah Hammoud, mayor of Dearborn, a Detroit suburb with a large Arab-American population.

"It is my hope, Mr President, that you listen to us and choose the people of America over Benjamin Netanyahu."

Many Americans, including from within Biden's own party, want the president to take a much stronger stance against Israel's military campaign.

"I think he should be cognisant of it as he moves forward with his Middle East policy," Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, commented on the "uncommitted" vote.

"Because the truth is, he's losing a lot of votes, not just Arab Americans and Muslim Americans, but young people."

Biden and his team will certainly be paying close attention to the political fall-out from the Gaza conflict, which could have an important bearing on both the approach the Biden administration adopts to resolving the war, as well as its relations with the Netanyahu government, in the weeks to come.

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