From Baluchistan to Syria: Lifting the curtain on the Iran-Pakistan shadow war

While a direct confrontation between Tehran and Islamabad seems unlikely, things could escalate if Iran feels squeezed in the Levant.

Pakistan's additional foreign secretary, Rahim Hayat (R), welcomes Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) upon his arrival at the military Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi on 29 January 2024.
AFP
Pakistan's additional foreign secretary, Rahim Hayat (R), welcomes Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) upon his arrival at the military Nur Khan Airbase in Rawalpindi on 29 January 2024.

From Baluchistan to Syria: Lifting the curtain on the Iran-Pakistan shadow war

Iranian foreign minister Amir-Abdollahian is in Pakistan today to herald the resumption of diplomatic channels and the return of ambassadors to each other’s capitals.

The two countries enjoy close political ties; however, for the better part of four decades since the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, they have fought a shadow war against each other.

There are numerous irregular small wars between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Inter-Services-Intelligence (ISI) — from competition for control and influence in Afghanistan to overt Pakistan support for Azerbaijan to Pakistan military’s support for the Hariri family, Baluch insurgencies and Iran’s recruitment of Shiite fighters from Pakistan.

However, for a week, it seemed that the tit-for-tat air strikes between Iran and Pakistan following a clear Iranian escalation could draw the Pakistani military into the wider escalation unfolding in the Middle East.

AP
Supporters of a religious group demonstrate to condemn the Iranian strike in the Pakistani border area.

From a friendly Shah to hostile revolutionaries

The Shah of Iran had been one of Pakistan’s foremost backers against a much larger India. Indeed, the Shah even threatened to attack India if it went beyond its remit when it came to attacking East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) in 1971.

This is described in detail in the lucid account by the Shah’s chief courtier, Assadollah Alam. On the issue of Baluchistan, the Shah had provided jets and helicopters to assist against insurgents.

However, after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Pakistan and Iran began a long battle for influence in Afghanistan over control of various warlords.

Before the emergence of the Taliban, Iran had already started to support Shiite groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. A shadow war had started, which involved backing each other’s proxies across each other’s Baluch and Afghan frontiers.

Iran and Pakistan enjoy close political ties; however, for the better part of four decades since the Islamic Revolution in Tehran, they have fought a shadow war against each other.

Pakistan is the largest trainer of Gulf armies, and Tehran viewed Pakistan's close ties to Saudi Arabia as a threat to their influence in the Middle East. Iran then decided to team up with India — Pakistan's arch-rival — to counter Islamabad in Afghanistan.

Spy games and recruiting fighters

After the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the new Afghan Republic also pulled closer to India and Iran when it came to trying to isolate Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. Iran also undermined Pakistan's port in Gwadar, which is funded by China, by bolstering their own port — funded by India.

Additionally, Iran played an active role in influencing domestic politics in Pakistan. A right-hand man of a former Pakistani president confessed to spying on the Pakistani military on behalf of Iran.

An Indian spy, Kulbashan Jadav, captured in Iran by the ISI, has led many in Pakistan to suspect that Iran had tolerated Indian spies in the sensitive Baluch areas, thereby confirming a joint Iran-India partnership to trap Pakistan.

Iran recruited thousands of Pakistani Shiite fighters to fight in Syria and has them battle-hardened for a potential return to cause havoc in Pakistan. 

India's cooperation with Iran in Afghanistan and Baluchistan has raised the stakes for confrontation. Iran and India have also used Afghanistan to corner Pakistan by doing a U-turn on Taliban ties so that the ISI can no longer use the Taliban against the two.

Iran has also recruited thousands of Pakistani Shiite fighters to fight in Syria and has them battle-hardened for a potential return to cause havoc in Pakistan. This upset the guerilla order in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In 2020, Javed Zarif, the then-Iranian Foreign Minister, said that Shiite fighters could be used to stabilise Afghanistan and Pakistan. This caused considerable anger in both countries but showed the Iranian desire to dominate using proxies to fight local civil wars or ethnic and sectarian strife.

The killing of the Taliban leader Mullah Mansour in 2016 near the Iran border was viewed suspiciously by the Pakistani military, given that Mansour had just crossed the border from Iran into Pakistan when a drone strike killed him.

Islamabad made the allegation that Iran and the US had colluded in making Pakistan the fall guy again when, in fact, the Taliban was now also being supported entirely by Tehran.

AFP
A Taliban military parade on a main street in Kabul to celebrate the second anniversary of the withdrawal of US forces.

IRGC versus the ISI

The assassinated head of the IRGC, Qasem Soleimani, regularly threatened to attack Pakistan. After Islamabad apprehended Iran's most wanted terrorist following a series of cross-border attacks, Soleimani publicly vowed to teach Pakistan a lesson. 

Pakistan's military hit back at Iran several times, also threatening to attack if Iran's interference goes unchecked. There have also been open accusations by Pakistan of the Iranian's involvement in Pakistan soldiers being killed. Iran and IRGC have not been happy with Pakistan's overt support to the Azerbaijani military against an Iranian-backed Armenia.

Furthermore, Pakistan's military has enjoyed close links to both Rafik and Saad Hariri (the assassinated Lebanese Prime Minister and his son, who also served as prime minister), and there has been talk of the ISI bolstering Lebanon's Sunni camp to counter Iranian hegemony in Lebanon.

So, whilst there is no chance of a war between the two countries, and despite excellent political and cultural links, Iran and Pakistan will likely continue their shadow war.

However, Iran's missile strikes into Pakistan last week should be closely watched. If Iran feels more squeezed in the Levant, tensions with Pakistan could very well escalate.

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