Why Syria lacks a unified position on the war in Gaza

East Syria becomes tinderbox

Meanwhile, three US-controlled enclaves — east of the Euphrates, Manbij, and Al-Tanf — have become tinderboxes for the simmering US-Iran confrontation. More than 90 attacks, much of them attributed to Iranian-backed Iraqi factions, have targeted US forces in these areas.

Read more: US forces come under increased attack in Iraq and Syria

On their part, areas under Syrian regime control — which cover about two-thirds of Syria and are supported by Russia and Iran —  have also come under attack. They have been targeted by a series of preemptive Israeli strikes — particularly against the Damascus and Aleppo airports — ostensibly to thwart Iran's efforts to transfer weapons and missiles to Hezbollah.

Additionally, Syrian air bases have been subject to bombings by Israeli forces. In a significant escalation, Tel Aviv assassinated Razi Mousavi — a longstanding representative of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Syria.

These offensive raids and preemptive strikes in Damascus are seen as efforts to deter Syria from fully engaging in the regional "arenas war" spearheaded by Iran — the leader of the "Axis of Resistance."

Significant development

In a significant escalation, Iranian-backed factions have been attempting to smuggle weapons and ammunition from southern Syria into Jordan. This marks a dangerous evolution from drug smuggling into a more nefarious form of arms trafficking in Jordan and the Gulf region.

Jordan has responded by carrying out bombings in the Syrian south — which Damascus has not condemned — and followed the air strikes up with a threat of a ground invasion.

Read more: Jordan takes its war on drugs to Syria

What does Damascus want?

It seems that Damascus is manoeuvring to position itself strategically within the "axis of resistance" amidst Israel's war on Gaza. Notably, the Syrian regime did not publicly endorse Hamas. President Bashar al-Assad did not host any public meetings with representatives from the movement.

Additionally, there haven't been huge demonstrations in support of Palestine and Gaza in Damascus or other government-controlled areas, in stark contrast to other Arab capitals like Sana'a, Baghdad and Amman. Also, Syrian regime forces have not launched attacks against Israel in the Occupied Golan Heights.

At the moment, it seems that Damascus is conducting a skilful balancing act: maintaining a degree of separation from its ally Tehran by not completely aligning with it, showing support for Palestinians in Gaza but not for Hamas, and ensuring that government-controlled areas stay neutral in the US-Iran confrontation so that they don't turn into bases for attacks on Israel.

In a divided, destroyed and economically struggling post-war Syria, Damascus is trying to keep whatever remains of the country's social fabric together. Arab normalisation is one path that al-Assad could pursue to secure funding for reconstruction and find ways to circumvent crippling American sanctions imposed on it via the Cesar Act.