Amid the horrors in Gaza, the Arab world has a chance to reshape its own future

Missed opportunity of 1973

Hamas's fateful attack and Israel's subsequent war on Gaza could prove to be a transformative event in the Middle East and directly impact the Arab world's relationship with the international community. But it can also prove to be a missed opportunity, as was the 1973 war.

Much will depend on how the Arab countries seize the opportunity created by the crisis in Gaza to enhance their influence and stature on the international stage.

Read more: Will the State of Palestine become a reality in 2024?

The 1973 war brought Arabs together in an unprecedented manner. The problems that kept Arab countries apart in the 1950s and 1960s gave way to united action. Progressive and reactionary, republics and monarchies, pro-Soviet and pro-American — at least for a fleeting moment in historical terms — forced the international community to pay attention to one of the Arabs' most fundamental grievances: Israeli occupation of Arab lands in Egypt, Syria and, above all, Palestine.

In 1973, Arab countries — apart from being an important energy source to the world markets — were only marginally integrated into the international economy. On their part, Turkey and Iran posed no direct threats to Arab interests and Arabs had no collective approach to achieving peace with their main adversary, Israel.

Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia made up the core of the Arab world and thus shaped intra-Arab politics and, subsequently, Arab relations with the outside world. However, Egypt, Iraq and Syria faced serious domestic economic and political challenges and the Gulf countries were politically and militarily dependent on the United States.

North African countries remained somewhat distant from the events shaping the rest of the Arab world, further diminishing its collective influence on the international stage.

Arab global influence

Today, the situation is fundamentally different for Arab countries.

The dependency on the US has diminished considerably. Relations with China are developing rapidly. There is significant cooperation with Russia, particularly in the areas of energy and procurement of arms.

Moreover, the Arab world holds an increasingly important position in the international economy. They account for 46% of crude oil, 30% (and rising) of natural gas exports, 30% of international container trade, and 16% of air cargo trade.

Their sovereign wealth funds command globally significant assets. The inflow of foreign direct investments to the Arab economies doubled in 2022 compared to 2019 — rising from 3% to 6%. The weight of Arab countries in the emerging markets indices is now at 7% and is expected to rise in the next few years to 10%. This positive position is largely due to the performance of the Gulf states.

As a reflection of their increasing weight, several Arab countries are members or are in the process of becoming members of economic groupings that wield considerable influence on the international economy. Most notably, Saudi Arabia is a member of the G20. On their part, Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia were invited to join BRICS in January 2024.

Moreover, Arab countries are now committed to peace with Israel as a strategic objective, as stipulated in the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative. 

Arab countries are, therefore, in a more favourable position not only to shape the future of the Middle East but also to make a significant contribution to shaping the evolving international system.

But to do so, Arab countries must articulate a vision for a comprehensive and genuine peace in the Middle East. This involves not only managing their relations with Israel, Iran and Turkey but with the world at large — particularly the major powers of the United States, China and Russia.

But to influence the evolving regional and international systems, not only do Arab countries need to intensify their activities in addressing transnational challenges including the green energy transition, environmental sustainability, connectivity and such, but they also need to deal with regional problems more consistently and effectively.

Need for a collective vision

This necessitates a collective vision for the future of the Middle East.

If such a vision cannot be reached, the Arab countries will remain handicapped by the festering conflicts in the region and unable to realise the ambitious plans they have set out for themselves.

To start, there needs to be a determined effort to settle the conflicts that have plagued the Arab world for so long. The 7 October attack has forced the world to pay attention to the need to solve the Palestinian question.

But other conflicts also deserve attention. There is Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan, Yemen and the Western Sahara. Probably none will be fully resolved in 2024, but efforts should focus on putting them on a pathway towards resolution — at least those who have a bearing on peace and stability in the region.

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However, it is important to remember that Arab countries cannot and should not depend on outsiders to solve their problems. While it is true that none of these difficulties can be solved without dealing with foreign powers, history has proven that, without Arabs taking the initiative, outside powers are perfectly content to contain these conflicts until they blow up, as what happened in Gaza.

However, addressing these conflicts in silos will not bring genuine peace and stability. This is only possible if they are pursued within a broader regional security architecture. Arab countries, therefore, need to articulate a vision for such an architecture.

This needs to be a comprehensive and inclusive regional security system, not one designed as a politico-military arrangement directed against any regional party. It also means that there will be no Israeli integration in the region without concrete steps to create a viable Palestinian state.

Given the numerous shifting variables and moving pieces, predicting what will happen this year in the Middle East is challenging. While there are several potential scenarios, I will highlight the most extreme ones to encapsulate all possibilities.

Constants and variables

But before laying out the variables, it is necessary to point to the factors that will most likely remain constant in 2024. They are:

• Diminished US influence, particularly the president's limited ability to manoeuvre in an election year

• The rising economic and political influence of China

• The reduced influence of Russia due to its preoccupation with the crisis in Ukraine

• The continued marginal influence of the European Union

• Arab states improved relations with both Iran and Turkey

• The growing influence of the Gulf states, particularly that of Saudi Arabia

• A stalling of efforts for Arab normalisation with Israel

• Mounting global interest in finding a lasting solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

• How this year will shape the Arab world depends on two important variables:

• How Arab countries handle the crisis in Gaza in a manner that would enhance their global influence and stature

• The outcomes of the US elections and expected elections in Israel.

Best and worst-case scenarios

A best-case scenario would be one where Arab countries work together to manage the crisis in Gaza in a way that advances their interests and ensures peace and stability in the Middle East.

This requires using their leverage to advance the prospects of establishing a viable Palestinian state based on the June 4, 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital as a step towards a comprehensive peace; addressing the domestic challenges — particularly economic — in various pivotal Arab countries; taking the lead in resolving the crises in Libya, Syria, Sudan and Yemen; and Israel electing a moderate government that is genuinely interested in a compromise that allows for comprehensive peace.

This scenario also relies heavily on US President Joe Biden's ability to play a constructive role in bringing about a settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The US would have to put unprecedented pressure on Israel to reign in its expansionist goals under the current government.

While this is seemingly unrealistic to expect in an election year, the majority of American youth — who were crucial to electing Biden and are even more crucial to his reelection — are increasingly adopting a pro-Palestinian position.

Together with the Arab-American vote, which is crucial to deciding the vote in the battleground state of Michigan, this development could pressure the administration to venture into this unchartered territory.

The worst-case scenario is that Arab countries fail to seize the opportunity created by the Gaza crisis, and anticipated Israeli elections bring in an even more extreme government or one unable to compromise to reach peace.

In this scenario, Biden fails to escape the trappings of the election cycle and falls short of fulfilling his pronouncements on the necessity to advance the two-state solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict. This would leave the Middle East in a precarious situation, lurching from one crisis to another, and the Arab countries will have missed another opportunity to contribute to achieving genuine peace and stability in the Middle East.

Fissures in the Arab world would grow, and countries suffering from major economic and political difficulties — primarily Egypt — would get stuck.

On their part, Gulf countries — primarily Saudi Arabia — would not be able to insulate themselves from the deteriorating conditions in the region and, therefore, would be unable to realise their ambitions.

Between these two extremes are many other possible scenarios but unfortunately none of these can bring genuine peace and stability to the region.

Although the results of the Israeli and US elections will play a decisive role in setting the stage for the Middle East in 2024, it is the positions Arab countries adopt and the policies they will pursue from now throughout 2024 that will ultimately determine the future of the region. The crisis in Gaza offers Arab countries a unique opportunity to work together toward the common good.