A year of elections at a time of war

Crucial elections

For a large part of the world's population and the global economy, there is another means of determining power: 2024 will be an electoral milestone.

Over 40% of the world's population, in countries generating around 40% of the globe's gross domestic product, will get the chance to change leaders at the polls.

Some elections look pre-determined. Russia's President Vladimir Putin will likely win a fifth term in March, almost 25 years after he first came to power.

And yet, the electoral landscape is not without its intrigue. Votes in Pakistan and Bangladesh will take place in the shadow of the Afghan Taliban and a resurgent Chinese Communist Party under President Xi Jinping, who strengthened his grip on it in 2023.

The spotlight will shift to India in the spring when the world's largest democracy decides if the incumbent, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, gets a third term.

His defeat would send shock-waves through Washington, where strategies have been built around Modi. Such a result could even undermine US efforts to position India as a counterbalance to Beijing's growing influence.

China's eyes will be on Taiwan's elections. The burning question remains: What will unfold if Taiwan's pro-independence party triumphs again, especially if Joe Biden loses to Donald Trump in the United States?

The contest for the White House, due in November, has been aptly termed "the world's elections," and although the final candidates are yet to be confirmed, it is widely expected to be a re-run of Trump versus Biden, the most recent ex-president and the incumbent respectively.

Global significance

The US votes at a time of unprecedented division within its borders. Beyond them, the outcome is of immense global significance, particularly for two of America's historic adversaries — China and Russia — who are both watching and waiting.

The result will influence bilateral relations, the entire global order, and the narrative around the democratic model. In short, there is a lot at stake.

Xi may not favour a Trump comeback, in stark contrast to Putin, who hopes that Trump's return may alter the military dynamics of Russia's war in Ukraine.

It is, therefore, hardly surprising that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky — who himself might seek re-election next March, at the end of his five-year term — is intensely focused on the outcome of the Biden-Trump showdown.

Elsewhere, this year will see elections in four smaller European countries: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, and Finland.

They will be crucial as barometers for gauging the public mood as the continent experiences a rise in populism, far-right parties, and concern over immigration. Some even ponder the steadfastness of the region's commitment to democratic values.

There is no shortage of more authoritarian models promoted by Xi and Putin. And right-leaning political trajectories can be observed in Hungary, France, Italy, and Spain.

In the United Kingdom, too, elections are likely in 2024. The incumbent, Rishi Sunak, is the fourth prime minister since 2019. The sense that  there is a revolving door at

10 Downing Street leaves the country looking for stability, a feeling given added poignance by the death of Queen Elizabeth II in 2022, who personified continuity in a 70-year reign.

Britain's next general election will play into 2024's test for the resilience and efficacy of democratic systems amid evolving global political landscapes.

And across the Atlantic, Mexican elections in June have drawn interest, not just because it is two women vying for power — a first — but because of the regional political backdrop, with a resurgence in both right-wing and left-wing movements across Latin America.

This political climate is further complicated by Venezuela's newly threatening stance towards Guyana and neighbouring Brazil's heightened state of alert in response. Both states have moved troops to the border.

Meanwhile, South Africans will vote in February in elections attracting significant attention, owing to the potential for a historic shift: the African National Congress, the party of Nelson Mandela, faces possible defeat for the first time in three decades.

In Africa, where political instability is widespread — as evidenced in regions like Libya and Sudan — and where global powers like the US, Russia, and China actively vie for influence, the very act of holding an election is itself a notable achievement.

This is especially so given the continent's recent history of political upheaval, with 13 coups in the past 23 years, seven of which have occurred since 2020.

Despite this, 2024 is set to witness elections in nine African nations, including key countries like Algeria, Tunisia, and South Sudan, offering a hopeful contrast to the recent trend and underlining the importance of democracy in the region.

This vivid juxtaposition of the gun and the ballot box in 2024 is clearly on show in Tel Aviv and Kyiv.

For Ukraine, the waning of Western support and a surge in Russian confidence suggests a gradual move towards deadlock. The conflict may become the latest in a series of frozen crises, possibly after an understanding between Russia and the West.

Crumbling popularity

In Israel, the deeply unpopular Benjamin Netanyahu faces allegations that he might be extending his country's war in Gaza for personal political reasons.

If Israel is still at war deep into 2024 with no tangible results, it could amplify calls for change at the polls, particularly against a right-wing government that claims to prioritise security but which failed to avert the 7 October attacks.

All of this – and more – is covered in our special issue. It also offers the thought-provoking perspectives of Gaza-born Nasser al-Kidwa, the former foreign affairs minister of the Palestinian National Authority, on the "inevitability" of acknowledging a Palestinian state.

There is a wealth of insight in science, health, and culture, focusing on one of the breakout stars of 2023:  Artificial Intelligence.

AI's 2024 is expected to show rapid advancement, particularly in the health sector, showcasing how this rapidly evolving technology is poised to redefine our prospects in this crucial area and a range of others. And on that note, we wish you a happy and healthy 2024 into what will be a vital year!