Kurdish-AKP dialogue crucial to outcome of Turkey's local elections

A considerable cost

Despite the retaliatory measures, the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party continued their steadfast opposition to Erdogan's policies. This commitment came at a considerable cost.

Ahead of the legislative and presidential elections this year, Erdogan launched a scathing campaign against the Kurdish party, accusing them of allegiance to external forces, disrupting the national peace, and attempting to divide the country.

This campaign drove the Kurdish party into the arms of the opposition, which blames Turkey's political, security, and economic challenges on Erdogan.

However, the Kurdish party's anti-Erdogan stance seems to be unsustainable. Increasingly, influential Kurdish figures — from intellectuals, business leaders, and community representatives — are calling to review this stubborn position.

They see Erdogan's increasing political strength as no match for the Kurdish party's limited capabilities. Additionally, the pressure campaign imposed by Erdogan in the Kurdish regions has increasingly suppressed Kurdish culture, disrupting the social and economic fabric in these areas. 

The Turkish leader has also abandoned the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers' Party. As a result, a segment of Kurdish elites aligned with Erdogan has emerged despite being a minority demographic.

Pivotal significance

Erdogan acknowledges the pivotal significance of the upcoming local elections, particularly in Turkey's central cities—Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. The prospect of regaining control over these cities is virtually unattainable without garnering support from the Kurdish electorate.

His electoral support remains secure in the central Anatolian regions, in stark contrast to cities and coastal states that exhibit a leaning towards the opposition. Consequently, the primary political battleground is centred on these three major cities, where the Kurdish vote is decisive.

Erdogan sees the upcoming elections as essential to the survival of his "historic project," which would create a new constitution that aligns with his ideological and political leanings.

At this juncture, both sides should make conciliatory gestures to begin a constructive dialogue. On its part, the Kurdish party's demands are not too much. It only wants Erdogan to scale back its punishing policies and punitive measures imposed on the group and release its detained members.

On his part, Erdogan wants the party to break away from the opposition publicly and not adopt a wait-and-see approach to potential offerings made by the opposition in the coming weeks.

Vulnerable position

Erdogan expects the Kurdish party, which has been significantly weakened, will meet his demands and reach an understanding with the ruling coalition.

Some communication between the two sides has already occurred at the second-tier leadership level. Currently, discussions are centred on the preliminary steps both sides are expected to take before engaging in direct negotiations.

But if the past eight years have taught us anything, it is that this progress could be jeopardised at any moment should external forces on both sides decide to interfere.

This makes the current period very delicate and sensitive. Leaders on both sides should proceed with caution and think carefully before making any rash decisions.