Reality sets in over Ukraine's losing war effort

Credit goes to Putin 

Much of the credit, moreover, for changing the momentum of the conflict in Russia's favour must go to the Russian leader himself who has overcome the challenges he faced in the summer to reinvigorate Moscow's war effort.

Putin's first move was to purge the senior ranks of the Russian military who were suspected of having close links to Prigozhin and his renegade supporters in the Wagner Group.

Among the high profile officers who were relieved of their commands was General Sergey Surovikin, who had served alongside Prigozhin during the Syrian conflict and had responsibility for establishing Russia's formidable defensive formations in Ukraine.

Indeed, the so-called Surovikin line has proved to be a formidable obstacle that has played a central role in thwarting Ukraine's long-anticipated counter-offensive, which was launched in June amid high expectations that it would enable the Ukrainians to land a knockout blow against the Russian invaders.

Surovikin and other senior former allies of Prigozhin may no longer be contributing to Russia's war effort, but the preparations they made before their fall from grace to defend Russian positions in Ukraine have proved highly effective, to the extent that the Ukrainian offensive has only made modest territorial gains during the past few months.

Apart from successfully thwarting Ukraine's efforts to retake captured Ukrainian territory, moves implemented by Putin to place the Russian economy on a war footing have also reaped dividends.

Russia's buoyant oil revenues have been diverted to militarise the Russian economy, resulting in a significant increase in weapons production. More recently Putin has authorised a 170,000 increase in the size of the Russian military, suggesting he has no intention of scaling down Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.

On the contrary, recent moves by the Russian military, such as its determined efforts to seize key strategic targets, such as the eastern town of Avdiivka in the Donbas region, suggests he is in for the long haul.

Oleksii Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council, has even warned that Putin could order a full mobilisation after next year's Russian presidential elections have taken place in March.

Western support for Kyiv waning

The revival in Russia's fortunes in Ukraine, moreover, has coincided with Israel's assault on Gaza, which has inevitably distracted attention away from Ukraine. With world attention focused on the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the ability of the Western alliance to maintain its previous level of support for Ukraine has come under renewed scrutiny.

It has even been reported that Germany and the US are colluding to put pressure on Kyiv by limiting Western arms shipments to Ukraine in a bid to persuade Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to enter peace negotiations to end hostilities.

The failure of Ukraine's counter-offensive, which was launched in June, to make any significant progress has certainly increased the pressure on Zelensky, who continues to remain defiant despite the lack of progress achieved on the battlefield.

In a recent interview with the US network PBS, the Ukrainian leader conceded that the conflict was at a new stage, with winter expected to complicate fighting after a summer counter-offensive that failed to produce the desired results due to enduring shortages of weapons and ground forces.

"We have a new phase of war, and that is a fact," said Zelensky. "Winter as a whole is a new phase of war."

Asked if he was satisfied by the results of the counteroffensive, he gave a complex answer."Look, we are not backing down, I am satisfied. We are fighting the second (best) army in the world, I am satisfied," he said, referring to the Russian military.

But he added: "We are losing people, I'm not satisfied. We didn't get all the weapons we wanted. I can't be satisfied, but I also can't complain too much."

Reality sets in

However, a more realistic assessment of the war's progress has been provided by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who warned that the Western military alliance should be ready for bad news from the Ukrainian front as Kyiv continues to defend against Russia's all-out invasion.

"Wars develop in phases," Stoltenberg told the German broadcaster ARD. "We have to support Ukraine in both good and bad times," he said.

"We should also be prepared for bad news."

Such an admission from the head of an organisation that is supposed to be the world's strongest military alliance will certainly be well-received in the Kremlin, giving Putin confidence that, so long as Russia stays the course, he will ultimately be able to declare victory.