With the Gaza war deep into its second month, western states show few signs of easing their steadfast support for Israel.
While some allies have quietly pressured Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu in private to minimise civilian casualties, and others, such as France, have publicly called for ‘humanitarian pauses,’ no major western power has yet called for a permanent ceasefire or an end to the conflict. Such united western support is unusual.
In Israel’s recent past conflicts, over Lebanon in 2006, then the three previous Gaza wars of 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, western backing was usually more tentative and faded into calls for ceasefires within weeks, sometimes days, of war breaking out.
On the one hand, many western leaders might argue that the solidity of support reflects the shock and horror at the scale of Hamas’ attacks, that saw 1200 Israelis killed and around 249 more taken hostage.
While this might be the case, there could also be wider geopolitical factors in play. The Ukraine conflict catalysed a renaissance in ‘the western alliance’ that had appeared to fray in the years after the Cold War ended.
Though the context is different, western support for Israel after 7 October in many ways reflects the backing received by Kiev after Russia’s invasion. It is aimed not only at reassuring the under fire ally but projecting to the wider world that the western alliance remains strong.
However, the Hamas-Israel war over Gaza is vastly more complex than Ukraine war, arguably, wider reaching given the length and global emotional heft of the Israel-Palestine conflict. As a result, the west’s steadfast support for Israel may yet throw up unforeseen challenges.
While in the short term it may seem the western alliance has been strengthened by the Gaza war, in the long term it carries the potential to weaken the west’s global position.
Read more: A Middle East war motivated by destructive politics
The Western alliance and the Gaza war
Though critics often assume Western states unquestioningly back Israel in its regional wars, the reality in recent years has been more nuanced.
While the United States, Germany, the UK, and Canada can usually be relied on to stand by Israel, other western governments and institutions have been less enthusiastic, and there was not always a united western front.
In Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah, for example, while the US and UK defended Israel’s right to self-defence and lobbied to delay a proposed ceasefire at the UN, the European Union condemned, “the disproportionate use of force by Israel in Lebanon,” within days of the war’s beginning.
In its subsequent wars in Gaza in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, western support for Israel was similarly lukewarm. In 2008-09’s Operation Cast Lead, again the European Union called for a ceasefire days after IDF ground incursions began, echoing criticism of Israel from major European powers like France and Spain, balancing somewhat the US, Germany, and Canada’s insistence of Israel’s right to self-defence.
In 2012, the pattern was repeated, with Washington, Berlin and London vocalising their support for Israel, while France and the EU, among other western states, urged ‘restraint’ on Netanyahu.
In 2014 even the United States showed signs of conditional support for Israel. Perhaps reflecting his strained ties with Netanyahu, President Barack Obama insisted on Israel’s right to defend itself, but urged restraint. In contrast Congress passed a resolution underlining its support for Israel.
Read more: The 'Sunni facade' of Hezbollah on Israel's northern borders
Yet the 2023 Gaza war has thus far followed a different pattern. Few western states, especially members of the G7, have been publicly critical of Netanyahu or his Gaza offensive. While ceasefires had been pushed for and agreed by this point in previous wars, no G7 leader has even called for the fighting to end yet. The most vocal western critic has probably been France, with President Emmanuel Macron telling Netanyahu that there have been “too many civilian losses” and urging a humanitarian pause, but this is a long way from the harsher stance of past French leaders.
The extent of Israel’s initial casualties and the shock of the 7 October attack might be one justification for this uncharacteristically close stance. However, it also reflects the new unity among western leaders after the Ukraine war. Indeed, the unity behind Israel, in many ways reflects the stance taken in western capitals after Russia’s 2022 invasion.
It may not last, especially as the casualties in Gaza mount, but for now these western leaders are seemingly keen to project to the world that they are as united behind Israel as they were behind Kiev.
Having failed to win support for Russian sanctions from historic allies in the Middle East, Asia, Africa and Latin America, this new western alliance may be smaller than its Cold War predecessor, but its leaders are keen to show it is still as, if not more, united.
