Discussions on the “Day After” scenario in Gaza

Hence, it is my perspective that the responsibility incumbent upon all nations worldwide is to bring an end to this insane war targeting civilians in Gaza and to dismantle the blockade in alignment with the resolutions set forth by the Arab and Islamic Summit. It is also crucial to provide essential resources such as water, food, medicine, and fuel to the over one million two hundred thousand Palestinians who have been displaced from their homes in northern Gaza.

Moreover, the heinous killings perpetrated by Israel against civilians conspicuously serve the purpose of displacement. The deliberate targeting of hospitals and schools that harbor displaced individuals, the bombing of places of worship, and the destruction of inhabited homes raise a pressing question: What military rationale underlies these acts of violence, if not to compel Palestinians to abandon their homeland?

In truth, there have been explicit plans articulated by Israel to forcibly relocate Palestinians to Egypt since the onset of the war. During the initial stages of the war, Prime Minister Netanyahu appealed to European leaders, who were visiting Israel in a show of solidarity, to persuade Egypt to open its borders to "host" Palestinians. Subsequently, following the events of October 7, the Israeli Intelligence Ministry presented a range of options to the country's political leadership, among which was the proposal to deport Palestinians to Sinai and establish a buffer zone therein to impede their return to Gaza.

Moreover, Israeli politicians have overtly published political articles advocating for the deportation of Palestinians for humanitarian reasons. For example, Danny Danon from the Likud Party and Ram Ben-Barak from the Yesh Atid Party have contributed articles to The Wall Street Journal, urging Western nations to welcome the Palestinians who voluntarily migrate there amidst the ongoing war. These views resonate with the ideologies of the most extreme and rigid factions in Israel, including Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of extreme religious Zionism. In 2017, Smotrich formulated a plan known as the "Determination Plan," centred on the substantial expansion of settlements in Palestinian territories with the objective of thwarting the "Arab dream of a viable state in Judea and Samaria."

The rejection of Israeli plans by Egypt, Arab, and even Western nations does not inherently guarantee the prevention of their implementation. Israel is unlikely to confine its ground operations to northern Gaza; rather, it may extend them to the southern regions. In such a scenario, there will be aerial and artillery bombardments akin to those witnessed in the northern Gaza Strip.

Read more: Gaza war shows heightened risk of escalation in the region

In such a dire situation, Palestinians might find themselves compelled to escape toward Egypt in a bid to protect the lives of their children. This would place Cairo in a predicament with three options: either open its borders to the fleeing Palestinians, resort to lethal force against those attempting to escape the killing, or engage in a military confrontation with Israel—options that Cairo would presumably prefer to evade.

This issue extends beyond the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt. The success of Israel's plan in this regard could potentially encourage it to displace Palestinians from the West Bank to Jordan. At a minimum, it might encourage it to relocate Palestinians from Jerusalem to the West Bank. Jordan has recognized this looming threat, leading its foreign minister to assert that such actions would be considered tantamount to a declaration of war against Jordan.

Now, turning to the third issue, discussing the question of the "Day After" encompasses two fundamental aspects. Firstly, an acknowledgment that the Palestinian factions in Gaza will undeniably face defeat. Secondly, a recognition that Israel has to prevail over these factions, even if the process requires a considerable amount of time.

In this context, it is crucial to clarify that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is not a part of this discussion, has no intention to be a part of it, and rejects even considering it. The current priorities of Saudi Arabia are cantered on delivering aid to the people of Gaza, working towards a lasting ceasefire, and thwarting Israel's plan to displace Palestinians.

This was the stance articulated by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan when asked about this issue. He explicitly stated, "Our priority is to reach a ceasefire and nothing else."

The Kingdom also believes in the Palestinians' right to defend themselves and liberate their homeland. It stands in solidarity with them and supports their decisions, and it will remain, as it always has, a strong supporter of their rights.

Regarding the defeat of the armed factions in Gaza, in my assessment, despite the war having persisted for almost six weeks, a definitive resolution appears to be distant at this point.

A political analyst need not be a military expert to discern that the initial four weeks of the war constituted an Israeli endeavour to crush the armed factions from the air. Throughout this period, these factions had no recourse but to retaliate with rocket attacks and await the commencement of ground warfare, which commenced approximately two weeks ago. Scenes broadcasted by media outlets have depicted that the Israeli occupation forces are encountering formidable and determined resistance and that the losses on the Israeli side exceed officially declared figures.

The United States occupied Iraq and Afghanistan, but the prolonged resistance compelled the U.S. to eventually withdraw from both countries. In Afghanistan specifically, the United States not only withdrew but also had to engage in negotiations with the Taliban, ultimately transferring power to them. In Mosul, despite the efforts of the international coalition, the Iraqi army, and supporting militias, it took nine months to liberate the city from ISIS.

However, the challenge lies not only in the intensity of resistance faced by the occupation forces in Gaza but also in the nature of the objectives set by Israel. Israel has openly stated its intention to militarily dismantle the armed factions, topple their governance in Gaza, and secure the release of civilian hostages and military captives.

However, as of November 16, Israel has achieved the following in Gaza: the destruction of 94 government buildings, 71 mosques, 3 churches, 235 schools, and 25 hospitals. It has also killed more than 12,000 Palestinian civilians, predominantly children and women, and injured three times that number.

Israel cannot claim any singular success in its operations. For instance, there is no announcement of successfully locating and destroying the weapon depots of the armed factions. There is no declaration of reaching and neutralizing the leaders of these factions, either through capture or elimination, and not a single hostage or prisoner has been freed. On the contrary, the indiscriminate bombing has seemingly led to the unfortunate deaths of some of them.

Three noteworthy issues should be highlighted:

Firstly, the accruing losses in the Israeli army and the looming potential for an economic crisis resulting from the mobilization of its entire reserve military force may compel Israel to acknowledge its inability to attain its stated objectives. This could prompt Israel to consider de-escalation and engage in negotiations for a ceasefire with the armed factions.

Another possibility is that the United States and Western countries may apply pressure on Israel to halt its military operations before achieving its goals. This pressure could stem from the immense losses among Palestinian civilians and the mounting domestic pressure on these governments from their own populations.

Additionally, there exists the possibility of the ongoing conflict expanding. Although the confrontations between Israel and the armed factions along the southern borders of Lebanon currently adhere to acceptable rules of engagement for both sides, any misstep by either party could result in the conflict broadening and swiftly spreading to involve other countries.

In light of these factors, contemplating the "Day After" appears premature. More critically, it diverts attention from the primary imperatives, which include the immediate delivery of humanitarian aid to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in urgent need, compelling Israel to halt its aggression on Gaza, and preventing the war from spreading to other nations.