There are no total wins in Biden-Xi summit

Moreover, America has already completed the first phase of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to strengthen its extensive Pacific supply chain, excluding China.

China's agenda

Meanwhile, China has been busy preventing real estate risks from spilling over to the financial sector.

Simultaneously, it broke the US chip blockade by delivering home-made advanced chips essential for Huawei's quasi-5G phone. Chinese apps still dominate the top five most popular downloads in the US app store.

Additionally, China has led the expansion of the BRICS bloc.

This bigger bloc, which now includes Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE (alongside founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), strives to enhance integration within the emerging global landscape and advance de-dollarisation efforts.

Amid Russia's weaknesses, China has strategically pivoted its focus to the Arctic Ocean through the development of the Polar Silk Road. This initiative will allow it to tap into the resources of the Arctic Ocean and establish a novel trade route connecting Asia to Europe.

In this vision, China sees Vladivostok as the potential Hong Kong of Northern Eurasia.

Since the Jakarta meeting, leaders from both America and China have been working to disentangle their mutual supply chains, build new multilateral economic and security frameworks, and expand their global reach with selected like-minded partners.

This is part of a bigger picture, which features the decline of the America-China relationship over the past year.  

What brought America and China together?

Deflation, dimming exports, foreign capital outflow, and exchange rate devaluation are all realities that have collectively shocked Xi's state-building efforts.

America remains the most formidable economic partner for China, but in order to stabilise trade and foreign direct investments (FDI), Xi will have to convince America that China remains an attractive investment destination and a compelling consumer market.

On its priority list, China needs America to lift its chip ban on China – and to stop preventing other countries from selling chip-making products to China.

Additionally, China would want to remove hundreds of its companies and research institutes from America's blacklisted Entity List. It would also want to renegotiate tariffs and revitalise Chinese exports. China additionally needs US capital to flow into its domestic capital markets.

Furthermore, China aspires to restore Hong Kong to its status as China's global free trade centre.

From a security standpoint, China's core interest is Taiwan. Heading to a presidential election in January, Xi hopes that Biden will issue a strong statement to Taiwan's presidential candidates that America opposes Taiwan's independence.

While President Biden has persistently stated that "America does not support Taiwan independence," this sentiment falls short of formally opposing such a notion.

For President Biden, a face-to-face meeting with America's global arch-rival is an occasion to showcase both American prowess and his own strength.

Biden is expected to voice strong support for the defence of Taiwan, human rights in Xinjiang, and freedom in Hong Kong, as well as his administration's support for Ukraine and Israel. None of these topics are new or groundbreaking.

America's core concern, however, is also Taiwan; it needs to ensure that China does not miscalculate the risks of military provocations across the Taiwan Strait.

China's eyes are on revamping its economy with US support, while America's focus is on building a safety net to ensure no wars break out in the Indo-Pacific.

As a result, the Biden-Xi meeting will be a face-off between China's economic interests, and America's security ones.

What compromises can be achieved?  

The easiest compromise will be related to trade.

China purchased three million tonnes of soybeans last week, supporting American farmers, as a gesture to kickstart trade between the two nations; the conservative Midwest agricultural votes are crucial to Biden's presidency.

China may also offer to purchase Boeing jets, on the condition that America scales back trade and investment restrictions on the Chinese military-industrial complex.

In addition, there is speculation that America and China have made a joint breakthrough in a crackdown on the Fentanyl supply chain in China. Fentanyl kills more than 100 Americans daily, and cooperating with China on controlling the Fentanyl trade will be seen as a major political victory for Biden.

In return, China will ask for the removal of its public security research institute from America's blacklist.

China and America are set to agree on the ban of AI usage in nuclear and autonomous weapons; containing risks posed to humans by artificial intelligence seems to be a common denominator for both leaders.

Ultimately, neither Biden nor Xi can achieve a total win at the San Francisco meeting. But both can strike an item or two, of equal significance, from their to-do lists. The outcome will be an a-la-carte agreement with limited success.

Both leaders will direct their talking points not as much at each other but at their domestic audience.

In 2024, however, the world should brace for a colder US-China relationship.