Egypt unlikely to take control of Gaza after Israel ends its war

Although adding Gaza's population of 2.3 million to the load Egypt carries might not seem to be a huge deal, Egypt has too much on its shoulders already.

"If it takes control of Gaza, Egypt will have to provide all the needs of these people," Samir Ghattas, the head of Egypt's Strategic Studies Centre, told Al Majalla.

"This will not be easy for Egypt, given its current economic hardships," he added.

With its debts accumulating, budget deficit widening and foreign currency reserves dwarfed by the needs of its people, Egypt is in the throes of a severe economic crisis.

The prices of goods have sharply spiked because of the devaluation of the Egyptian pound, which has led to increasing poverty in a country where a third of the population was poor even before this economic crisis.

Egypt has also approached international crediting agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund, agreeing to stringent reform measures, including the sale of state assets and the curtailment of the public sector's presence in the market.

Read more: 'International Misery Fund': Egypt struggles not to fall into IMF debt hole

Minefield

The proposal to pass responsibility for Gaza onto Egypt comes hard on the heels of reports about an Israeli plan to force the residents of the Palestinian territory to leave for Egypt's Sinai.

Egypt stood firm in the face of this plan, with the Egyptian president warning that such a move could threaten Egypt's peace treaty signed with Israel in 1979.

Read more: Why Egypt rejects a Palestinian population transfer from Gaza

If it takes over Gaza, Egypt would be responsible for preventing Palestinian militants inside Gaza from carrying out attacks on Israel. If it cracks down on such groups, Egypt will be viewed by the Palestinians as a partner of Israel — the very country that wants to expel them from their land.

On the other hand, if Egypt does not prevent attacks on Israel, there is a real possibility of another war between the two countries.

The current administration in Egypt has invested greatly in combatting the Muslim Brotherhood — the mother organisation of almost all Islamist movements in the region.

The Brotherhood, which took over Egypt's rule in 2012, wanted to establish an Islamic state in the country as a first step to an Islamic empire across the region.

Egyptians paid a steep price for their decision to mount a rebellion against the Brotherhood only one year after it came to power through elections.

Repeated waves of Brotherhood-led terrorism after the downfall of its regime in 2013 cost Egypt a lot in terms of lives and money, including scaring tourists and investments away.

If it takes charge of Gaza, Egypt will have to confront the Brotherhood once again, given the fact that Hamas is an ideological offshoot of the Brotherhood.

However, the eradication of Hamas – if it happens – will not mean the total demise of this organisation, observers in Cairo say.

"This is why I believe Israel's desire to obliterate Hamas is mere daydreaming," Egypt's former foreign minister, Mohamed al-Orabi, told Al Majalla.

"Hamas will continue to be part of the equation in Gaza, given the fact that its popularity among the Palestinians has increased dramatically after the 7 October attacks," he added.

This popularity will mean that Hamas's spectre will continue to be in Gaza, even if the group is thrown off the territory's saddle.

This means that Egypt – if it takes control of Gaza – will be facing the very group it had painstakingly got rid of at home.

El-Sisi's legacy

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who unequivocally opposes the expulsion of Palestinians in Gaza, believes that such an expulsion could effectively end the dream of Palestinian statehood.

El-Sisi is set to run for president next month, seeking a new six-year term on the saddle of the Arab world's most populous country. A former army chief, el-Sisi, knows well how war can be costly and appreciates the value of peace.

He has urgently called for the Palestinians and the Israelis to sit at the negotiating table on the road to establishing peace between the two sides and creating a Palestinian state on the borders of 1976, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

He is certainly concerned about his legacy as well. No Arab leader would want to be remembered in history as the one who killed the dream of a Palestinian state.

El-Sisi views himself as a peacemaker, constantly comparing himself with the late Egyptian president, Anwar al-Sadat, who made peace with Israel and was later assassinated.

Ticking time bomb

With its population density, harsh economic conditions and repeated confrontations with Israel, Gaza is becoming a ticking time bomb that no one wants to pick up.

By relieving itself from the administrative responsibility of Gaza, Israel will have a huge weight lifted from its shoulders, especially if the authority that takes over abides by the same terms of agreement that Israel imposed on the enclave.

Observers in Cairo see a unified Palestinian authority to be best suited to rule over Gaza after the end of Israel's war.

"The presence of this authority is very important because it will not give Israel the chance to claim that it does not have a Palestinian partner to negotiate with," al-Orabi said.