Iran warned not to escalate
The Pentagon has accused Iranian-backed militias of conducting at least 19 attacks on US military personnel in Iraq and Syria in the last ten days, prompting US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to issue an explicit warning to Tehran not to escalate the conflict.
"Iran wants to hide its hand and deny its role in these attacks against our forces," Austin said in a statement issued by the Pentagon following the US airstrikes. "We will not let them. If attacks by Iran's proxies against US forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people."
His sentiments were echoed by US President Joe Biden, who issued a direct warning to Khamenei about Iran sanctioning attacks against US troops.
"My warning to the Ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond," President Joe Biden told a news conference on 25 October, referring directly to Khamenei. "And he should be prepared."
With Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militia, also being involved in a number of skirmishes with Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, the dangers of Iran becoming directly involved in the conflict certainly cannot be discounted.
That said, there is also the distinct possibility that many of the threats emanating from Iran and its allies are little more than bluster and that Tehran is only really interested in gaining credit for its support of Hamas rather than taking the risk of a direct military confrontation with either the US or Israel.
This was evident from the meeting recently held in Beirut between the leaders of Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which together form the so-called "Axis of Resistance" against Israel.
Internal tensions
In a statement issued following the summit, the leaders declared their aim was to achieve "a real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine" and halt Israel's "treacherous and brutal aggression against our oppressed and steadfast people in Gaza and the West Bank".
Despite this show of unity, though, there are clear signs of tension between Hamas and other members of the so-called "Resistance", with senior Hamas officials complaining that Hezbollah is not doing enough to support their battle against the Israel Defence Force.
Speaking the day after the Beirut summit, Ghazi Hamad, a member of Hamas's decision-making political bureau, said in an interview that "we need more" from allies, including Hezbollah.
"Hezbollah now is working against the occupation," Hamad said at the Hamas office in Beirut Thursday. "We appreciate this. But ... we need more in order to stop the aggression on Gaza ... We expect more."
If Hezbollah's reluctance to become more deeply involved in the conflict is indicative of Tehran's attitude, Iran's ability not to become directly involved in the conflict could be short-lived if the Israelis have their way.
In an interview with Iran International, the Israeli UN ambassador Gilad Erdan made it clear that Israel intends to confront Iran over its support for Hamas and other militant groups once the Gaza military offensive has been concluded.
"The Ayatollah regime is the head of the octopus, and Hamas is only one of its tentacles. Once we're finished with this war, we will address this global threat that Iran poses."
Certainly, any attempt by Israel to challenge Iran directly would inevitably involve the US, which has reiterated its unequivocal support for the Jewish state, and could therefore result in open hostilities between Washington and Tehran.
