How Hamas deceived the world

In the wake of Hamas’ shocking assault on Israel, many questions have rightly been asked about why and how this was missed.

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On 7 October, Hamas shocked the world, when thousands of its militants invaded southern Israel in an attack that demonstrated an unusual level of complexity.

How Hamas deceived the world

Charles Lister

last update on 31 Oct 2023

On 7 October, Hamas shocked the world, when thousands of its militants invaded southern Israel, taking control of territory, massacring civilians and kidnapping hundreds.

The attack itself demonstrated an unusual level of complexity, with a first wave seeing drones taking out Israeli reconnaissance equipment and observation posts and cyber attacks creating distractions, opening a path for amassed militant incursions from the air, sea and ground.

Hamas had clearly prepared for this operation extensively. It knew precisely where to attack, and when, demonstrating enhanced sophistication.

This was Israel’s “9/11” moment – shaking the country to its core. The resulting Israeli air campaign against Gaza has been both tragically predictable and catastrophically destructive.

In nearly a month since the war erupted, 1,400 Israelis were killed, more than 8,000 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, and 116 Palestinians were killed in the West Bank.

Concern for regional escalation is palpable.

AFP — Palestinian militants move towards the border fence with Israel from Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 7, 2023.

Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen have all engaged, launching suicide drones, cruise missiles, artillery rockets and mortars at American forces and other regional targets. And all of this despite Israel’s widely expected ground incursion not having yet begun.

In the wake of Hamas’ shocking assault on Israel, many questions have rightly been asked about why and how this was missed.

The subject of ‘intelligence failures’ has been widely debated, with a variety of theories shared – particularly Israel’s domestic political chaos and security fixation on rising threats from the West Bank. But beyond these, there lies one that is more troubling and harder to acknowledge: Hamas deceived everyone.

In the wake of Hamas' shocking assault on Israel, many questions have rightly been asked about why and how this was missed.

Pragmatic actor ruse

Since at least the spring of 2022, if not earlier, Hamas had been presenting itself as a newly pragmatic actor, willing to sidestep hostilities in favour of ensuring Gaza's stability.

In private meetings with senior defence and intelligence leaders from Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt through 2022 and into the summer of 2023, I heard many analytical accounts of this "new Hamas."

One particularly senior Israeli official spoke to me confidently of newly formalised and direct deconfliction arrangements with Hamas, which had seen the group communicate its desire to avoid hostilities, including during serious crises in August 2022 and April-May 2023.

According to the official, Iran had stepped up its assistance to Hamas, but it was Iran's relationship with Islamic Jihad in Gaza and militant factions in the West Bank that was causing more immediate challenges.

When asked about these observations, one senior US official said Hamas no longer drew the same levels of concern as in previous years. For Qatar, perceptions of Hamas' newfound pragmatism were both a source of optimism but also concern, as its traditional Gaza conflict mediation channels were no longer as effective when the likes of Islamic Jihad were driving hostilities.

According to one senior Qatari official, hostilities between Islamic Jihad and Israel in April-May 2023 were virtually unmanageable, as command decisions were not even being made in Gaza, but by a "cell" based in Lebanon, that included Hezbollah and officers from Iran's IRGC. Egyptian officials expressed similar concerns.

AFP — Lebanese soldiers and bystanders stand on a road overlooking the border area with the northern Israeli town of Metulla on October 8, 2023, after Lebanon's Hezbollah and Israel said they traded cross-border fire.

As the primary channel through which Gaza's core infrastructure was kept alive – in an arrangement managed bilaterally with Israel's security services – Qatar's concerns were real but similarly misplaced.

Ultimately, Hamas appears to have fooled everyone. While it did indeed stay almost entirely out of major hostilities with Israel for the past 18 months, this was not a sign of pragmatism as everyone had assumed; it was a ruse that allowed it to prepare for its unprecedented attack on 7 October.

This unfolding war should serve as a clear reminder — for the region and the world — of the consequences of ignoring or dismissing prospects for a meaningful resolution to the wider Palestinian question.

AFP — Rockets are fired by Palestinian militants into Israel, in Gaza City, October 7, 2023.

Cohesion, loyalty and professionalism

Maintaining a ruse of such duration and significance, across a militant movement of at least 30,000 fighters demonstrates a concerning level of internal cohesion, loyalty and professionalism.

Israel's most potent sources of intelligence within Gaza have always been informers within and close to Hamas, so the fact that this latest attack never leaked is shocking.

It should raise serious questions about the extent to which the attack was likely planned and pre-coordinated with other core Iranian proxies in the region, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than anything, it should debunk any suggestion that Hamas' attack on 7 October was conducted without the knowledge or involvement of Iran.

This unfolding war should serve as a clear reminder — for the region and the world — of the consequences of ignoring or dismissing prospects for a meaningful resolution to the wider Palestinian question.

The dynamic of regional de-escalation and the trend towards normalising ties with Israel has been encouraging. Still, the imbalance it created vis-à-vis Palestine was a gift to Iran and the terroristic agendas of its militant proxies.

We are now watching that play out.

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