How Hamas deceived the world

Pragmatic actor ruse

Since at least the spring of 2022, if not earlier, Hamas had been presenting itself as a newly pragmatic actor, willing to sidestep hostilities in favour of ensuring Gaza's stability.

In private meetings with senior defence and intelligence leaders from Israel, the United States, Qatar and Egypt through 2022 and into the summer of 2023, I heard many analytical accounts of this "new Hamas."

One particularly senior Israeli official spoke to me confidently of newly formalised and direct deconfliction arrangements with Hamas, which had seen the group communicate its desire to avoid hostilities, including during serious crises in August 2022 and April-May 2023.

According to the official, Iran had stepped up its assistance to Hamas, but it was Iran's relationship with Islamic Jihad in Gaza and militant factions in the West Bank that was causing more immediate challenges.

When asked about these observations, one senior US official said Hamas no longer drew the same levels of concern as in previous years. For Qatar, perceptions of Hamas' newfound pragmatism were both a source of optimism but also concern, as its traditional Gaza conflict mediation channels were no longer as effective when the likes of Islamic Jihad were driving hostilities.

According to one senior Qatari official, hostilities between Islamic Jihad and Israel in April-May 2023 were virtually unmanageable, as command decisions were not even being made in Gaza, but by a "cell" based in Lebanon, that included Hezbollah and officers from Iran's IRGC. Egyptian officials expressed similar concerns.

As the primary channel through which Gaza's core infrastructure was kept alive – in an arrangement managed bilaterally with Israel's security services – Qatar's concerns were real but similarly misplaced.

Ultimately, Hamas appears to have fooled everyone. While it did indeed stay almost entirely out of major hostilities with Israel for the past 18 months, this was not a sign of pragmatism as everyone had assumed; it was a ruse that allowed it to prepare for its unprecedented attack on 7 October.

Cohesion, loyalty and professionalism

Maintaining a ruse of such duration and significance, across a militant movement of at least 30,000 fighters demonstrates a concerning level of internal cohesion, loyalty and professionalism.

Israel's most potent sources of intelligence within Gaza have always been informers within and close to Hamas, so the fact that this latest attack never leaked is shocking.

It should raise serious questions about the extent to which the attack was likely planned and pre-coordinated with other core Iranian proxies in the region, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. More than anything, it should debunk any suggestion that Hamas' attack on 7 October was conducted without the knowledge or involvement of Iran.

This unfolding war should serve as a clear reminder — for the region and the world — of the consequences of ignoring or dismissing prospects for a meaningful resolution to the wider Palestinian question.

The dynamic of regional de-escalation and the trend towards normalising ties with Israel has been encouraging. Still, the imbalance it created vis-à-vis Palestine was a gift to Iran and the terroristic agendas of its militant proxies.

We are now watching that play out.