Catastrophe in Gaza and Western complicity

Similarly, in situations where Iran perceives an immediate threat, Hezbollah readily responds. Despite clashes involving Hezbollah forces and Iranian militias in Syria, they refrain from retaliating against Israel's repeated attacks, citing the pretext of responding at a more opportune time and place.

This pattern – and what has happened more recently – means talk of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance is harmful as well as irrational. This coalition appears to exploit the Palestinian cause solely for its own gains, using it as a bargaining chip and even manipulating it to further Iran's regional agenda, often at the expense of unity among Arab communities.

Iran's axis bears the responsibility for the devastating consequences paid for its politics in countries like Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon. Events there demonstrate unequivocally that the Axis cannot lead Palestinians to a positive outcome.

It is imperative to recognise that the principles of freedom and justice are inherently intertwined. Claims of support for the Palestinian cause cannot absolve Iran of its actions elsewhere. One wrongdoing cannot justify another, and the actions of one criminal entity – whether it's Israel or Iran – cannot excuse or validate the actions of another.

Hamas government stays absent

Hamas' military operation caused unprecedented pain in Israel. It also showed commendable and meticulous planning.

But there were no such preparations within wider society for the subsequent conflict. Nor was Gaza's government or its institutions equipped to provide essential services. The Hamas government was largely absent, failing to fulfil its obligations to the people of Gaza. It came in stark contrast to the efforts of the UN Relief and Works Agency there, which stepped in to address these needs to the best of its abilities.

Hamas failed to anticipate the consequences of its operation on the living conditions of Gaza's residents – from water and electricity shortages to a lack of fuel and medical supplies – as well as food shortages.

Despite being responsible for Gaza's government for 17 years, Hamas functioned solely as a military entity, neglecting its responsibilities as an authority accountable for over 2 million people.

Victory and then catastrophe

Hamas has indulged in triumphant rhetoric since its attacks on Israeli soil. It has failed to acknowledge the devastating tragedy and the heavy toll paid by Palestinians in Gaza.

In just one week after the Hamas attacks, Israel killed 2,200 Palestinians.  That surpassed the casualties of the first war in 2008, which lasted 21 days and resulted in a Palestinian death toll of 1,400. It matched the losses of the third war in 2014, which lasted 50 days. The toll now stands over 4,300.

Hamas also seems to disregard the impact of further forced displacement of people. This could mean the movement of people from the northern half of the Strip to the south, or even on into the Sinai Desert. There is a risk that such movement makes Gaza, already poor in resources, uninhabitable.

The triumphalism over the attacks persists despite these grim realities. It is as if Hamas is trying to obscure the catastrophe that has befallen the people of Gaza. It is remains more keen to talk about the safety of its military infrastructure and weaponry – talking about strongholds and other measures that will be employed to protect the Palestinian people – even as their human suffering is on display all around.

Israeli unity against Palestinians

Hamas' attacks have brought unity to a previously fractious and factional Israel.

The idea of an existential threat to the state has returned to Tel Aviv's politics. This has emboldened Zionist extremist and religious groups, which have moved from being isolated, and condemned by the international community, to being armed and part of a war effort.

It has strengthened a right-wing government that was under pressure at home and abroad.

This brings with it a particularly troubling problem: the threat of an escalation in attacks against Palestinians by settler groups in the West Bank, possibly extending into the 1948 territories, with the protection of the Israeli army. It is reminiscent of the events that unfolded during the Palestinian uprising in defence of the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood following missile strikes from Gaza into Israel in 2021.

The West looks away from Palestinian plight

The West's response, led by the United States, has been to stand with Israel, to the point of complicity with the devastation wrought in Gaza.

Condemnation of it has been feeble in the Arab world as well as in the wider international community. Any pressure on Israel has been tepid. It has all undermined longer-running diplomatic positions on Palestine and support, including from the US, which sponsored the peace process.

This global response flagrantly disregards international and humanitarian norms, as Israel's actions undeniably amount to war crimes in every sense of the term.

The lack of restraint that the international diplomatic position allows Israel to show on the ground in Gaza amounts to a dehumanisation of Palestinians. It strips them of their rights, in a brutal assault that feels motivated by racism and a sense of supremacy from their enemies.

Gazan civilians face brutal assaults. Criticism of Israel is equated with anti-Semitism. There is criminalisation of legitimate Palestinian resistance against occupation. It is as if the West is primarily concerned with its own geopolitical interests in the Middle East and shows no regard for human life and the sovereignty of nations.

The US and the West appear to have forsaken the liberal and democratic values they profess as their guiding principles and main attributes on the world stage.

This becomes glaringly evident when they restrict the freedom of speech of their citizens over Israel, a nation widely acknowledged as a colonial and apartheid state or a Jewish state.

Israel seems to enjoy exemptions from international laws and humanitarian standards. This selective application of values raises questions about whether these principles are intended exclusively for Western populations.

West passive in face of Israeli aggression

Furthermore, the West has remained passive in the face of Israel's aggressive campaigns against Palestinians. It has also displayed apathy towards the al-Assad regime and its allies Iran and Russia, whose forces have caused the deaths and displacement of millions of Syrians for over a decade. All of this seems to serve Israel's interests and considerations.

The Palestinian struggle involves numerous deeply rooted challenges.

There has been international acknowledgement of the immense suffering of the Palestinian people over the last century. It has come alongside the remarkable heroism and sacrifices they have displayed in their struggle against Israel.

But throughout, the prevailing politics of the Arab world and the wider international scene have stopped this heroism and sacrifice from transforming into success. Palestinians have also lacked the strength and unity to do so independently.

The current catastrophic events unfolding in Gaza are a glaring indicator and poignant illustration of this enduring predicament.

Meanwhile, Israel's losses are strategically limited. It can adjust its circumstances and compensate for these losses through external support, helping it secure its safety, stability, and superiority.

Furthermore, Israel has the potential to transform its considerable losses into an even graver setback for the Palestinians, impacting their presence on the land, and their way of life, and reshaping political dynamics in Israel's favour.

Warnings unheeded and new questions

I have warned for years that any unpredictable Palestinian reaction or shock operation could be a golden opportunity for Israel.

It could be used to justify a new wave of forced displacement of people to deepen the separation of Gaza and prompt demographic changes in Jerusalem and other regions. Throughout, there is likely to be further destruction.

This is what we have started to witness.

And so the question changes: Can the Palestinians – not just Hamas alone – effectively confront such a challenge while recognising the bravery and sacrifices of the young resistance fighters? Has the leadership of Hamas considered this scenario?

While Hamas may have claimed success for its recent operation, there is now valid concern that it will come at a significant cost to the Palestinian people.

Speaking of victories necessitates more than heroism and sacrifice. It requires a strategic vision that allows for political investment in what should be a sustained popular resistance.

And it demands more favourable regional and international conditions than the ones before us and those we can anticipate in the foreseeable future.

Resisting occupation, injustice, and the colonial, racial, religiously biased, and aggressive Israel is certainly a noble, humanitarian, and legitimate endeavour.

But the Palestinians are currently enduring a catastrophic situation, with over 2,200 lives lost and approximately half a million displaced. If this does not qualify as a catastrophe, then what does?

The hope is that this ordeal will, in some way, conclude swiftly and that the slaughter of Palestinians will stop.