Post-October 7: Israel’s brutal pursuit to restore its lost deterrence

It can be said that Israel's war on Gaza has three key objectives: 
 
First, Israel aims to restore its lost deterrent power after the October 7 raid, when Palestinian fighters successfully infiltrated the Gaza Envelope, seized 11 military bases and 20 settlements, and killed or captured hundreds of soldiers.

For decades, Israel carefully crafted an image of itself as an invincible state with a formidable military and intelligence apparatus that could vanquish any adversary. However, this facade shattered on October 7, exposing its inherent falsehood.

To recover its lost status, Israel now unleashes its full destructive capabilities to demonstrate its ruthlessness, even if the toll on Gaza's civilians further cements its image as an aggressor against women and children. Restoring deterrence remains Israel's primary goal, regardless of the cost.

Second, Israel relentlessly endeavours to eradicate Gaza's militant factions by eliminating their leaders, members, and weapons. This intent became clear during Defense Minister Yoav Galant's declaration alongside US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that "Israel will remove Gaza from the grip of Hamas."

Beyond retaliation, the government aims to restore confidence among residents in relocated settlements, who will not return while armed factions control Gaza. 
 
In this context, it is essential to remember that Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 under the operation codenamed "Operation Peace for Galilee." This military action was triggered by the attacks launched by the Palestinian resistance forces from Lebanon on the Galilee region, compelling many of its residents to evacuate.

Third, Israel wants to change Palestinian awareness, convincing them that armed resistance cannot achieve freedom and independence.

Instead, Palestinians must accept what Israel "offers." Israel fears emboldened resistance in the West Bank and Jerusalem if Gaza's factions maintain control after October 7. Crushing these factions prevents armed resistance from becoming an enduring culture that continually drains Israel's resources and resolve.
 
This war in Gaza differs from the previous five since Hamas assumed control in 2007. 
 
In the past, Israel experienced deterrence wars that ended with ceasefires, securing years of relative calm. Hamas secured concessions like goods, funds, and limited work permits in Israel, while Israel achieved tranquillity.  
 
However, this war is different because achieving its objectives requires a comprehensive ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. This approach would inevitably result in the loss of thousands of Palestinian lives and the displacement of hundreds of thousands, all with the aim of reaching the fighters, neutralising them, and dismantling their weapon depots.

In the past, Israel abstained from a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip due to the substantial human and political costs it entails. Reoccupying Gaza, which contains tens of thousands of soldiers, would undoubtedly lead to significant casualties within the Israeli army, a prospect Israel was unwilling to contemplate and one that Israeli society was unprepared to accept.
 
On the other hand, a ground invasion would lead to the loss of thousands, if not tens of thousands, of Palestinian civilian lives—a prospect deemed unacceptable by the international community.

Additionally, Israel hesitated to reoccupy Gaza due to a fundamental question it could not answer: "What would happen on the second day of the occupation?" In other words, who would manage the lives of over two million Palestinians after the occupation?

However, the human losses suffered by Israel, including its officers, soldiers, and settlers, during the attacks of October 7, coupled with the sense of humiliation and the fear that its deterrent power had greatly eroded, obliterated all these obstacles.

According to its officials' statements, Israel appears prepared to endure even substantial losses among its soldiers. Furthermore, Israel has secured the desired political and military support from the United States and other European nations to reclaim control of Gaza.

Presently, the question of what follows the occupation of Gaza does not seem to be a primary concern in their calculations, particularly after garnering Western endorsement.

In response to queries on this matter during a press conference with the Qatari Foreign Minister, the US Secretary of State stated, "The priority now is to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas to Israel."

This statement echoes what Lloyd Austin emphasised in his press conference with Gallant: "The US military does not impose conditions on its security aid and weapons provided to Israel, nor on how they are used."

Israel and the West seem determined to eradicate Gaza's militant factions, even if it means displacing Palestinians and risking regional conflict. 

To support Israel, if the conflict escalates, the US deployed an aircraft carrier and may send another. Britain dispatched Royal Navy vessels, helicopters, and surveillance aircraft to Israel, while Germany sent two Heron drones.

 
Away from speculating whether this war will turn into a regional war or not, this war underscores what the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has repeatedly emphasised: that peace and stability in the Middle East are not possible without resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It has been and remains the core of the conflict in the region, and it is a matter of great importance to its states and peoples. This is precisely why the Kingdom linked the decision to establish relations with Israel to making significant progress toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
 
The kingdom has not condemned the military operation of Palestinian fighters. It clearly called for protecting all civilians, issuing a statement in which it stated that the current situation is "caused by Israel's ongoing occupation and its denial of the rights of Palestinians," and called on the international community to launch a credible peace process that leads to the implementation of the two-state solution.
 
Yet the West wholeheartedly embraces Israel's narrative - portraying October 7 as terrorism akin to 9/11, despite Israel's own admission that among its casualties were a minimum of 268 officers, soldiers, and 97 detainees (these figures are subject to change as Israel updates them daily).
 
Furthermore, the West has demonised the armed Palestinian factions, equating them to ISIS, to such an extent that US President Biden initially asserted to have viewed videos depicting Palestinian fighters "beheading men, children, and women." However, the White House later refuted this claim, clarifying that the President had not personally watched these videos but had been informed about them by Israeli leaders.

In summary, there is a prevailing narrative in the West that what happened on October 7 is an Israeli 9/11 and that the armed Palestinian factions are no different from ISIS.

Consequently, there is unprecedented pressure on many Arab countries to condemn the actions of Palestinian fighters and to prevent them from pressuring to stop the massacres committed by Israel against Palestinians.

This mission brought US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region, starting with a visit to Israel, where he stated, "He did not come here solely as the US Secretary of State but also as a Jew whose grandfather fled from death." All of this, naturally, puts significant pressure on Arab stances.

In this context, it is imperative to consider two crucial aspects:

Firstly, the accomplishment of Israel's objectives in Gaza will not an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; rather, it is likely to exacerbate the tensions. Israel will translate its military victory into a political one by refusing any substantial concessions to the Palestinians.

It might even pursue the annexation of all Area C regions in the West Bank (representing 60% of its land). Concurrently, there continues to be pressure from the West on Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel despite the absence of any significant political progress on the Palestinian front.

Secondly, Israel has no interest in governing Gaza if it successfully occupies it; it is inclined to swiftly abandon the territory, leaving it in ruins for the United Nations and the Arab world to contend with.

Turning this prolonged conflict into an opportunity for achieving regional peace necessitates Israel's failure in its current pursuits.

Only then will the West tell Israel that despite the unconditional support it received and all its desires being met, it could not ensure its own safety.

In return, Israel will be compelled to embrace a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians. This settlement would involve security arrangements for Israel in exchange for its withdrawal from the Palestinian territories it occupied in 1967.

If this analysis holds true, which I believe it is, the pursuit of regional peace hinges on Israel's failure in its endeavours to crush the Palestinians and claim victory over them.

This can be realised through two avenues: either a Palestinian resilience that thwarts Israel's quest for victory or a Western intervention stepping in to curb Israeli aggression once both the Palestinian and Israeli sides reach a point of exhaustion. 
 
In either scenario, there exists a prospect for active Saudi diplomacy, which essentially involves consistently reiterating its message to the West: that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict remains the primary concern for Arabs. True peace and stability in the region can only be attained through a just resolution to this conflict, ensuring Palestinians their right to self-determination and the establishment of their own state.

This requires the mobilisation of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and close collaboration with all nations invested in achieving a fair and stable peace in the region, including Turkey, Russia, and China, to present political initiatives to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and maintaining an open political dialogue to bring an end to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
 
In conclusion, Israel must comprehend that annihilating Gaza and brutally killing its people will not reinstate the deterrence power it lost on October 7.

Its current predicament parallels the scene in the American film "A Knight's Tale," where the hero, after unseating his boastful opponent Count Adhemar with a single blow, declares: "You've been weighed, you've been measured, and you've been found wanting."