October 7: Will it change the course of history?

Historical insight

Delving into the annals of both recent and more distant history might offer valuable insight into what may be written next, so soon after this latest surprise.

After all, the June Setback led to the victory of the October War. Presidents Anwar Sadat and Hafez al-Assad found common ground in conflict but diverged on the notion of peace. Sadat initiated the separation process and guided Egypt, often called Umm Al-Dunia (the Mother of the World), towards the Camp David agreement.

Conversely, al-Assad found himself engulfed in the flames of war. He comprehended the allure of power and the perils of peace and chose disengagement as cover.

Times also changed in the 1990s. After the Madrid Peace Conference in 1991, following the war to liberate Kuwait, the US looked as if it was on the way to becoming the world's only superpower after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This was the global and regional context in which Yasser Arafat, head of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, signed the Oslo Accords in 1993, and King Hussein endorsed the Wadi Araba Agreement in 1994.

Then, in late 1995, Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated. His successor, Shimon Peres, wanted to "fly in the sky" on the wings of a "New Middle East" after the murder, which led to the Grapes of Wrath operation in Lebanon in 1996. Suicide operations in Israel halted that; Peres lost at the polls and was succeeded by the right-wing Benjamin Netanyahu.

In 2006, the devastating July war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah occurred.  It ended with the issuance of UN Resolution 1703, which effectively neutralised the southern front in exchange for Hezbollah turning its attention to Beirut.

The United States spoke of the "birth of a new Middle East".

Contemporary context

And so we arrive at 7 October 2023. As the calendar flipped over to that fateful date, we should remember that significant changes were already underway in the region and internationally.

Maritime boundaries were being delineated between Lebanon and Israel, as facilitated by the Abraham Accords. There was talk of border demarcation. There had been an agreement between the US and Russia to move Iranian militias to a distance of 80 kilometres from the disengagement line in the Golan Heights.

Also, as 7 October 2023 arrived, talks between the US and Saudi Arabia were underway over major strategic agreements to lay the foundations for a new Middle East and to support Palestinians in moves toward securing their right to statehood.

And so, more than one set of events going on around 7 October 2023 could change the course of history. Many of them were seeking a future for the Middle East that blends the interests of major powers – such as the US, China and Russia – to their benefit while also serving the interests of the people in the region.

This issue looks at all these vital matters and more. It is infused with both anguish and aspiration, using history as a guide but refusing to be confined by it in setting out a vision for the future.

Al Majalla also offers analyses, interviews and articles on other significant scientific, cultural, political and economic trends worldwide.

There are clear signs that one chapter is closing and another is being written. Given the weight of all that history, the Middle East may remain faithful to its heritage by leaving some questions unanswered and responding to others with caution.

But this could mark the turning of a significant chapter in the region.