Lifting the veil on US-Turkey escalation in Syria

Reprisal attacks

The Turkish army and security forces have been pummeling YPG/PKK targets in parts of Syria and northern Iraq with jets, drones, artillery and missiles since the terror attack.

Turkish security forces have been systematically targeting the YPG in Syria and Iraq. But this time, the targeting has gone beyond individual YPG/PKK militants and some infrastructure.

In the past, Turkey had targeted areas near the Syria-Turkey border, whereas, now, it is hitting deep inside YPG-controlled territory.

The Turkish operations have been intense in Metina, Hakurk, Gara, Kandil and Asos regions in northern Iraq,  and in Syria in YPG-controlled areas from Ain Issa, Tall Rıfad to Qamishli and Amuda in northeastern Syria down to Raqqa.

Turkey is also targeting oil facilities in Syria. 

Oil revenue is the main source of income for the YPG, as the territories it controls in Syria's northeast are where most oil fields are located. Oil extracted there is sold by YPG at meagre rates, as low as $15 per barrel. It doesn't discriminate, selling to both the al-Assad regime and opposition groups.

In response to the Turkish attacks, the YPG has launched missiles at Turkish army bases in Kaljibrin and Dabıq, wounding several soldiers.

While a new Turkish ground operation in north Syria is unlikely likely, it cannot be ruled out entirely. It will depend on the way things evolve on the ground.

US-Turkish tensions intensify

In an area with too many actors, there is always a risk of confrontation, as was the case when a US fighter jet brought down a Turkish drone in the Tel Beydar area, north of Hasaka in northeast Syria.

The US claimed that the drone came threateningly close to a base where some 900 US troops were stationed. After several warnings, it was shot down. It is clear that the Americans knew that the drone belonged to Turkey.

After the incident, the US and Turkish defence ministers spoke on the phone. The readout of the conversation from the US side said that "both ministers reiterated their shared commitment to defeat the Islamic State (IS), and the US minister acknowledged Turkey's legitimate security concerns."

There was also a call for de-escalation in northern Syria and strict adherence to deconfliction protocols and communication through established military-to-military channels.

The careful diplomatic wording of the statement says a lot.

The US strike on the drone was probably a response to Hakan Fidan's call to third parties to stand aside.

This could be a one-off reaction or could signal a change in US terms of engagement. The Americans could be saying that, this time, they will stand by their local partner, the YPG, and not allow the destruction of its network.

Fighting one terror group with another

In 2019, US President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Turkish operation areas was heavily criticised in the US. 

The US has repeatedly stated that its priority in Syria is fighting IS. The dilemma here is that its local ally and partner — the YPG — is an extension of the PKK in Syria.

The US is using one terror organisation to fight another at the expense of its relations with a long-time ally and strategic partner.  The US, which recognises the PKK as a terror organisation, insists that YPG is not PKK, whereas it very well knows it is.

The US has condemned the terror attack in Ankara but is not happy about Turkish operations against YPG, the group the perpetrators of the attack belong to.

Turkey has offered the US to fight against IS together and asked it to stop its cooperation with the YPG, which is building its own system under the guise of supporting the US against IS.

The US has not accepted Turkey's proposal, probably for several broader geopolitical reasons.

The drone incident has revealed that communication channels (both military and political) between the two allies are functioning well.

Different approaches

There are also different approaches from within the US itself.

CENTCOM — which is responsible for the Middle East region — supports cooperation with YPG. In contrast, some other parts of the US system believe that alienating Turkey would not be good from an overall geostrategic perspective.

On its part, the YPG couldn't be more thrilled by the escalating tensions between Turkey and the US and is hoping for it to continue.

Another drone attack during a Syrian army military graduation ceremony in Homs, killed and wounded dozens, adding to the turmoil.

The opposition forces were said to be responsible for the attack, although no group has claimed the attack.

The al-Assad regime implied Turkey was behind the attack. The Turks have not commented.

Al-Assad's forces are on the revenge path and are raining missiles on Idlib and north of Aleppo, with dozens of civilian deaths reported.

Idlib, under Hayat Tahrir Sham's control,  is very fragile. A new flood of tens of thousands of refugees into Turkey is a very real possibility.

In the meantime, Russia has been quiet about the developments in Syria, keeping its focus on its war in Ukraine. Russian missiles struck a village in the Kharkiv region, killing more than 50 civilians who were attending a funeral.

Russia is probably unhappy with the new wave of Turkish operations in Syria but doesn't mind the escalating tensions between Turkey and the US.

As for the possibility of a sustainable long-term calm, in theory, can be achieved when the Syrian government takes over control of the country, all armed groups are dismantled, all foreign forces withdraw and a peace agreement including all Syrians is reached.

But al-Assad's tactics in addressing the crisis, as well as the involvement of different international actors with mostly conflicting agendas and priorities, do not inspire much hope.

For now, it is a wait-and-see situation, but things do not look promising.