India and China vie for influence after Maldives elects new president

Muizzu emerged as the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and Progressive National Congress (PNC) coalition's candidate after their first choice, former president Abdulla Yameen, could not enter the presidential race because he is serving an 11-year prison sentence for corruption.

Yameen commands massive support in the Maldives, with the opposition's election billboards prominently featuring him. Supporters and the president-elect consider the charges against the former president as political and the court ruling of December 2022 as manipulated.

The former president receives rather vicious media coverage in India as analysts and commentators tend to hold him responsible for raising China's profile in a strategically located nation of 520,000 people.

A set back for New Delhi

It is safe to say that Maldivian foreign policy is set for a recalibration under Muizzu and will be markedly different from the current Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) administration.

There is expected to be a balancing of foreign relations in which Maldivian sensitivities about India's influence, especially engagements in the military sector, will be reviewed.

Indian news media, guided by their deep-rooted bias against Yameen and an uncompromising view of the Maldives as "India's backyard," have described the election results as a setback for New Delhi.

Perhaps a better attitude for the commentariat would have been to respect the unambiguous choice of the Maldivian public.

Statements by the Muizzu camp since the election win have sought to reassure India of friendly and cordial relations in line with Maldivian policy of playing a constructive role for regional stability and not getting caught in the US-led geopolitical construct called the Indo-Pacific.

Waning popularity

Solih's close relationship with India significantly damaged his re-election bid, but that was not the sole factor for his unpopularity. The opposition accused the Solih administration of not being transparent in its "India First" foreign policy and not seriously tackling issues such as housing and jobs.

Some of Solih's top officials were roundly pilloried on social media for their conduct, which was viewed as dismissive of Muslim ethics and norms.

The "India Out" campaign led by Yameen's Progressive Party of Maldives flustered the MDP, so it could not devise a coherent strategy to counter its critics meaningfully.

Despite the new president not being close to India, the island will remain critical to India's regional policy. 

Maldives increasingly important to China

The Maldives has become increasingly important to China due to its location close to busy sea lanes through which a lot of trade and energy movement happens between the Middle East and East Asia.

Yameen — president from 2013 to 2018 — was vital to China's more significant role in the Maldives.

The Maldives has attracted several infrastructure projects as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The China–Maldives Friendship Bridge (Sinamale Bridge), inaugurated in August 2018 and connecting the capital, Male, with Hulhule Island, where the international airport is located, is a significant landmark in this relationship. India, similarly, has several projects in the Maldives and has offered aid and loans.

When Yameen lost power, it was seen as a setback for China, which has rapidly cultivated relations with the Maldives since opening its embassy in Male in 2011.

Solih, despite his pronounced pro-India policies, has stayed on generally stable terms with Beijing. China has played on its economic strengths without being churlish about Solih's fondness towards India.

Lesson for India

There may be a lesson for India in China's calm conduct during the past five years in the Maldives. However, India sees its relationship with the Maldives more in a historical context. It may find it difficult not to publicly show its discomfiture if any elements in its "multifaceted" relationship with the Maldives are jeopardised.

If it does show restraint, that would mean consideration for more long-term goals than an immediate oneupmanship with China.

The tiny nation has a significant presence in the imagination of certain sections of Indians, especially those who influence domestic public opinion and policies.

One spectacular event that is often part of the discussion on India-Maldives relations is India's military intervention, known as "Operation Cactus," in November 1988 to help President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom thwart a coup against him by a group of Maldivians acting in cahoots with a Sri Lankan Tamil militant group.

However, an Indian military presence as part of a broader economic and security relationship is a touchy and controversial subject in the Maldives.

In 2018, the Yameen government asked India to withdraw its military helicopters and personnel. There were also tensions between India and the Maldives over Yameen's actions against his political opponents. The developments were seen as a proxy battle between India and China. Yameen lost the election that year after the opposition rallied around Solih.

Muizzu has said he will fulfil his election promise on this issue.

The election of Muizzu, 45, who is a former housing minister and mayor of the capital, Male, is indirectly a triumph for Yameen. This is going to redraw the playing field between China and India.

The new administration will take China's superpower status and India's ambitions into account and balance them against post-pandemic economic realities and the global security environment reshaped by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The most crucial element, however, will be the public, which is unprepared to accept any encroachment upon Maldivian independence and identity.