7 things Saudi Arabia should keep in mind in talks with Israel

Riyadh should use its strong negotiating position to secure maximum benefits for its people and the wider region.

Getty/Majalla

US President Donald Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands after delivering a speech at the Israel Museum in Jerusalem May 2017.

7 things Saudi Arabia should keep in mind in talks with Israel

Brian Katulis

last update on 13 Sep 2023

The news that Saudi Arabia and Israel have been involved in discussions this year to establish formal diplomatic ties is just the latest in a series of secretive talks over the past few years that the two countries have had to explore avenues to normalisation.

Such a deal would be a game-changer for the region, and it’s always good to see the United States working to engage the Middle East after years of talk about pivoting away to other regions of the world or prioritising other issues.

Saudi Arabia has a strong hand in these discussions in part because Israel’s current leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants such an opening very much.

However, there are a lot of complicated issues involved. If this potential deal were a meal, it seems the parties are only in the early stages of gathering the ingredients before they start to mix them and then ultimately bake them.

Given the ingredients and steps involved, this deal may take much longer to cook than some observers expect. But many unexpected things can happen in a shorter time frame these days, as we saw earlier this year with the China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Here are seven things Saudi Arabia should keep in mind as Israel makes regional normalisation and integration a top priority:

1. Time is on its side

In the latest news on the talks, it’s apparent that some in both America and Israel have time-sensitive calendars in their minds when it comes to striking a deal in large part because of elections.

On its part, Saudi Arabia does not have to factor in this element all that much, and, therefore, it is not in a race with some political or electoral clock in other countries like Israel or America.

Remember how Israel responded when Saudi Arabia offered the Arab Peace Initiative more than two decades ago? The silence was deafening.

When former US President Donald Trump tried to get Saudi Arabia to join the September 2020 Abraham Accords, Riyadh made the right decision to opt-out because it was not the right timing.

Don’t rush things.

Saudi Arabia has a strong hand in these discussions in part because Israel's current leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants such an opening very much. However, there are a lot of complicated issues involved.

2. It is the bigger player in these discussions

Saudi Arabia's economy is double the size of Israel's, with nearly four times as many people. It remains a central player in global energy markets, and, as a member of the G20 with a lot of cash on hand, many countries worldwide are eager to be involved in the economic and social transformations underway in Saudi Arabia.

Israel plays a vital role in the region and the world, and it has many things going for it – a strong and capable military and intelligence establishment, and a vibrant economy with all sorts of unique technological capabilities, among other things.

At the same time, it is rife with many internal divisions – especially these days. Also, it can't seem to make up its mind about some critical existential questions and how to resolve them.

In a very real sense, time is not on Israel's side.

3. The Palestinian people are central to any lasting peace

Past agreements between Egypt and Jordan tried but ultimately failed to elevate the importance of the Palestinians, and the Oslo process that started nearly 30 years ago ground to a halt for many reasons.

AFP/Majalla — US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright walks with PLO leader Yassir Arafat at Camp David, Maryland, on July 17 2000.

The recent Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco were mainly built like a road in the West Bank that circumvents Palestinian population centres and goes directly to Israeli settlements. There are many reasons why Israeli-Palestinian tensions remain high, but a crucial reason is the lack of a just resolution that includes the interests of the Palestinian people.

Many people who have served in important positions in the past, know how frustrating it is to deal with the current Palestinian leadership – and the Palestinian people themselves know how underwhelming and uninspiring their leadership is all too well.

But this is no reason to settle in negotiations. It is much better to reach a comprehensive deal than simply agreeing to the bare minimum.

Top Saudi officials continue to reaffirm the basic principles behind the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which envisions a two-state solution, and Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan recently stated that "any peace with Israel must include the Palestinians because without addressing the issue of a Palestinian state, we will not have a true and real peace in the region."

Saudi Arabia's economy is double the size of Israel's, with nearly four times as many people. It remains a central player in global energy markets, and, as a member of the G20, many countries are eager to be involved in the economic and social transformations underway in Saudi Arabia.

4. Extremist hardline interpretations of religion come and go, as do their manifestations in a country's political system.

Israel is currently in a period of extreme uncertainty in its domestic politics, to say the least, and there are voices in the current government that many Israelis and Jews around the world find offensive because they are hardline and outside of the mainstream.

But these extremist views sometimes have a way of burning themselves out in terms of relevance, as many countries across the Middle East have seen in their recent histories.

It remains unclear which direction Israel's society will turn. Still, the fact that thousands upon thousands of Israelis are using their freedoms to openly oppose the current government's moves is a sign of hope that things can and may change for the better with a more forward-looking set of leaders in Israel.

5. The current regime in Iran, its retrograde network of partners like Hezbollah, and backwards terror groups will likely oppose any forward movement.

If there's progress in talks with Israel, especially if it takes point 3 fully into account, there will be elements in the region that will seek to sabotage these efforts.

Saudi Arabia should press on with its forward-looking policies and not listen to the complaints of nations stuck in the past. Has anyone read Islamic Republic of Iran's Vision 2030 document? No, because it doesn't exist.

6. America, not China or Russia, matters much more on this deal and the big-picture issues affecting the region.

Despite the pendulum swings in America's politics and mistakes made by leaders on both sides of America's partisan divides, the country remains the most influential and powerful country in the region and the world on the military and economic fronts.

China and Russia lack the depth and diversity of the United States' relationships in the region. European countries will continue to play second fiddle on most files in the Middle East.

Governments in the region depend on the unrivalled US military for security and defence, and no other outside power plays this unique role. This is mutually beneficial for American and Middle Eastern countries facing common threats from terror groups like "the Islamic State" (ISIS) and Iran and its proxies in the Middle East.

In addition, America still has the most vibrant and robust economy in the world, and it was the quickest economy to bounce back from the forced shutdown of the pandemic.

Lastly, America's soft power remains much more attractive to people in the region than what China and Russia offer, especially regarding culture, music, entertainment and education.

There will be elements in the region that will seek to sabotage these efforts. Saudi Arabia should press on with its forward-looking policies and not listen to the complaints of nations stuck in the past.

7. American political wrangling and rhetoric should not be taken personally.

Talk is cheap and gets even cheaper the closer an election date comes on the calendar in America. The cheapness is accentuated by the funhouse mirror-like attributes of social media that still shape political discourse in America, all part of a neo-Orientalism that has infected America's debates.

In the 2016 US elections campaign, then-candidate Donald Trump notably said, "I think Islam hates us." Later, as president, he also slung cheap insults at regional leaders. Regardless, Saudi Arabia looked past the political jargon and worked with Trump's administration while focusing on securing its interests.

The key takeaway is that Saudi Arabia could potentially be entering into complicated diplomatic discussions with one country (Israel) being facilitated by another (America), and both countries are facing a lot of their own internal challenges and divisions.

Saudi Arabia should not listen to the background noise and instead focus on what can be achieved under the right conditions. It should ensure that it gets back just as much as it gives in these negotiations. The deal should secure maximum benefits for the people of Saudi Arabia and the wider region.

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