In Ukraine, warring sides race to boost negotiating positions

Battleground achievements

Indeed, with Ukrainian forces said to have already broken through a number of Russian defensive positions around the strategically important area of Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv is optimistic that its offensive will pick up pace in the weeks ahead.

As a leading Ukrainian commander commented at the weekend, "everything is ahead of us" now that the Ukrainians have succeeded in breaking through the first line of Russian defences, which are deemed to be the most difficult. Now that has been achieved, Ukrainian commanders believe they will encounter less resistance from the Russians as they continue their advance.

The dramatic changes on the battlefield have already raised hopes that negotiations will soon resume to end the conflict. A number of countries, including China and Saudi Arabia, have already been involved in efforts to explore possible peace options.

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On its part, the Biden administration is said to be keen to see hostilities end ahead of next year's presidential election contest.

Indications have already emerged that Kyiv is preparing for a new round of peace talks after Zelensky appointed a new defence secretary who has previous experience of negotiating with the Russians.

Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's main privatisation agency, was previously a member of a Ukrainian government task force working on the strategy to end the occupation of Crimea.

Umerov is set to replace former Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, who has played a key role in lobbying for the supply of Western weaponry but has recently become mired in corruption allegations.

Umerov is seen as a talented negotiator and was a member of the Ukrainian team that held negotiations with Russia in March 2022, one month after Russia's full-scale invasion.

He also took part in talks on the Black Sea Grain deal and on exchanges of prisoners, including Ukraine's Azov fighters who were captured during the battle for the southern city of Mariupol in 2022.

He was a member of the delegation during a visit by Zelenskiy to Saudi Arabia in May and accompanied first lady Olena Zelenska during a visit to the United Arab Emirates in March.

What are Russia's options?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also indicated his willingness to pursue diplomatic options following his face-to-face meeting with his Turkish opposite number, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi to revive an agreement to allow the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea.

While no agreement was reached, Putin's willingness to discuss the option suggests that the Russians could be persuaded to enter talks to end the Ukraine conflict.

Speaking in the wake of peace proposals outlined during a summit of African leaders in St. Petersburg in late July, the Russian leader commented, "We did not reject them... In order for this process to begin, there needs to be agreement on both sides."

Whether Putin will maintain an interest in pursuing diplomatic options will be open to question, though, if planned talks later this month with North Korea result in a significant uplift in arms supplies to the Kremlin.

Details of Kim's planned visit to Russia were revealed by US security officials, who told the New York Times that Mr. Kim was most likely to travel by armoured train.

The exact location of the planned meeting is not clear, although the port city of Vladivostok, on the east coast of Russia, has been named as one likely location. There has been no immediate comment on the reported meeting from either North Korea or Russia.

The possible meeting comes after the White House said it had new information that arms negotiations between the two countries were "actively advancing".

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu had tried to "convince Pyongyang to sell artillery ammunition" to Russia during his recent visit to North Korea.

Putin and Kim have subsequently exchanged letters "pledging to increase their bilateral co-operation", he said, warning that the US would take action, including imposing sanctions, if North Korea did supply Russia with weapons.

North Korea and Russia have long-established defence ties dating back to the Soviet era, and Pyongyang's ballistic missile programme has relied heavily on Russian technology.

North Korea also has close military ties with Iran, and the two countries have worked closely on the development of their respective missile and nuclear programmes.

Iran has already emerged as one of Russia's key allies in the Ukraine conflict, providing Moscow with lethal suicide drones that are regularly used to attack Ukrainian infrastructure.

In addition to the arms supplies already being provided by Iran, the provision of North Korean weapons could therefore provide a major boost to Russia's war effort, one that could ultimately derail the immediate prospect of any resumption of peace talks.

If the provision of North Korean weapons helps to convince Putin that he can achieve his objectives in Ukraine through force of arms, then the Russian leader is unlikely to have much interest in ending the conflict over the negotiating table.