Jeddah talks offer creative ways to end the war in Ukraine

Jeddah initiative holds great significance

Those were the goals of Saudi Arabia's initiative to begin a peace process, which received a positive response from around 40 countries that sent senior officials to talks in Jeddah earlier this month.

The initiative was the most significant of its kind since the war began according to participants. Progress was made on the challenging path to establishing international consensus through the exchange of views and the submission of proposals.

China's participation had a positive impact on both the overall outcome of the talks and its renewed interest in the issue, which had seemed to wane since it announced its own peace initiative last spring.

The transition from the battlefield to the negotiating table may take time, but it will happen. It has become clear that a military solution is not just difficult, but impossible. Russia cannot achieve a decisive victory and the Ukrainian government will not surrender. Ukraine is unable to regain the territories occupied by Russia since February 2022, let alone Crimea.

The Russian offensive reached its farthest point late last year, and it has become increasingly difficult to achieve further significant military gains. It took Russia about 15 months of fighting to capture the city of Bakhmut. And as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group of mercenary fighters revealed before the crisis over the organisation broke, Moscow lost over 20,000 troops in this battle.

Read more: Who is winning the war in Ukraine?

A stalemate ensued. Ukraine then launched a counter-offensive that took several months to prepare. Russian forces had ample time to organise their defences and dig in, making it difficult for the attacking forces to advance.

Western reluctance

Ukraine is still expecting significant assistance and is seeking an adventurous escalation of the counter-offensive. But its allies have been trying to avoid this scenario.

Meanwhile, the possibility of Russia using the presence of Wagner forces in Belarus near the Polish border to open a second front seems unlikely.

These conditions on the ground all imply there is no escape from negotiations, even while both parties up to this point reject talks. However, political rhetoric is inherently fluid and always influenced by the course of events. This is what makes the possibility of negotiations increasingly plausible.

Both parties have no choice but to coexist with a frozen and bloody conflict that is exhausting them. This conflict results in mutual attrition through the use of drone and missile strikes. It is not difficult to see that Moscow is currently attempting to intensify the draining of Ukraine's renewed capabilities, which have been boosted by Western military, financial, and intelligence assistance.

Kyiv is attempting to keep up in terms of response, having acquired a significant number of drones, missiles, and shells in the past three months. In addition to the cost of this mutual attrition, both sides have experienced exhaustion that they have each tried to hide and deny.

Read more: Will F-16 fighter jets reach Ukraine before it's too late?

Fatigue creeps up

It is natural for Ukrainians to be more exhausted since they are the weaker party. But the war has also exhausted Russia militarily, economically, and financially, impacting its domestic situation, especially after Putin's position was shaken unprecedentedly due to the Wagner Group crisis and its ongoing repercussions.

Even though its economy has shown surprising resilience to sanctions, Russia has suffered economic and financial losses, weakening its position in this respect, which was not great to begin with.

When mutual exhaustion reaches its peak, both sides will realise the futility of continuing the fight and will be forced to soften their rigid positions and accept negotiations if a realistic solution is presented to them, offering a way out of the predicament.

Diplomatic creativity

Negotiations will be extremely challenging. Making concessions could further weaken Putin's domestic position and potentially topple Zelensky from power. Any reconciliation will require diplomatic creativity.

The Jeddah talks show how that is likely to be attainable, based on the way they were arranged and what transpired from them.

A potential strategy to resolve the issue over the future of the areas annexed by Russia will be complex. It could involve conducting a United Nations-monitored referendum. This approach aims to align with the demographic makeup of each region, with the referendum outcomes reflecting the preferences of the local population.

In the event that Luhansk, Donetsk, and the Crimean Peninsula express a desire for association with Russia, Putin could have with grounds to claim to his people that the mission has achieved its objectives.

International acknowledgment of that would come if any such breakthrough meant the West could gradually ease sanctions and offer certain security assurances to Russia. The prospect of Nato expansion, which has already reached included Finland and Sweden, could be curtailed.

If such a move led to Ukraine's recovery of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, it might allow the leadership to save face, as military recovery of those areas may not be feasible.

Any success of such negotiations in achieving peace and stability in Eastern Europe and the world also requires a plan for confidence-building measures, cooperation agreements, and Russia's contribution, along with other countries, in rebuilding what has been destroyed in Ukraine.