Will F-16 fighter jets reach Ukraine before it's too late?

Both Denmark and the Netherlands welcomed the decision, with Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra posting on the messaging platform X, formerly known as Twitter, "We welcome Washington's decision to pave the way for sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Now, we will further discuss the subject with our European partners."

Move applauded but concerns remain

While many Nato leaders welcomed the move, concerns remain about the delivery timeframe for the warplanes, as Washington's approval came with a number of important caveats. US officials said that the approval process would only commence once the training programme has been completed and that it would then seek to "expedite" the transfer of the warplanes.

As the F-16 is an American-made warplane, Washington reserves the right to decide whether allies that have bought the aircraft can supply them to another country.

Moreover, it can take a minimum of six months for pilots trained to fly Soviet-era aircraft to adapt to flying more sophisticated Western warplanes such as the F-16, which is widely regarded as being a superior weapons platform to Russian fighters, such as the Sukhoi SU-35.

Countering Russia's air superiority is crucial

To date, Moscow's ability to deploy SU-35s in eastern Ukraine has placed the Ukrainians at a distinct disadvantage as their forces have struggled to defend themselves against the Russian warplanes, which are equipped with highly effective radar and long-distance rockets that have been used to attack Ukrainian jets in the air as well as attacking military positions on the ground.

Ukraine's inability to provide adequate air cover for its ground forces during their latest counter-offensive against Russian positions in eastern Ukraine has been a key factor in the slow progress achieved by Ukrainian forces in recent weeks.

Acquiring a fleet of F-16s will, therefore, provide the Ukrainians will the ability to defend their air space while limiting the ability of their Russian adversaries to operate over Ukrainian territory.

A race against the clock

Even so, the Biden administration's dithering over whether or not to approve the transfer of the warplanes to Kyiv now raises serious questions about whether the aircraft will arrive in time to make a significant contribution to Ukraine's war effort.

Had approval been given for the warplanes to be delivered when Zelensky first made his request last year, they may have arrived in time to make a tangible difference to this year's Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Biden's inability to make up his mind on the issue means that it is highly unlikely the warplanes will arrive in time to see action this year, by which time the Ukrainian military offensive is likely to have ended.

Questions also remain about which countries will be supplying the fighters, and precisely how many of the warplanes the Ukrainians will receive.

A coalition of 11 Nato nations agreed during July's summit to train Ukrainians to fly F-16s and potentially other fighter aircraft. But military experts estimate it will be early 2024 before the Ukrainian pilots will be qualified to fly the aircraft.

While Poland led the calls for Ukraine to be given F-16s, it has insufficient numbers of the aircraft to offer them to Kyiv, with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki conceding in May that "we have too few aircrafts" to offer them to Ukraine.

It is likely that the majority of the 40-60 jets that have been pledged to Kyiv will come from Denmark and the Netherlands, although there is uncertainty about how many aircraft these countries will be able to provide to Ukraine's war effort.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in May said the Netherlands was seriously considering providing Ukraine with F-16s, as it is currently phasing out the fighter jets from its own armed forces, without saying how many F-16s will go to Ukraine.

Denmark has also been unwilling to provide precise details of how many aircraft it will supply, saying that a decision will only be taken once the training has been completed.

"The government has said several times that a donation is a natural next step after training. We are discussing it with close allies, and I expect we will soon be able to be more concrete about that," said Danish Defence Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen after Washington gave its approval for the transfer.

In such circumstances, it is entirely reasonable that doubts should remain about just how effective the F-16s will prove to be to Ukraine's war effort, while the Ukrainians have every right to question whether the promised warplanes will arrive in time to help them defeat their Russian adversary.