Will the Baltic Sea become a new arena for confrontation between Russia and the West?

In the face of the grain crisis, Ukraine's options appear limited. Diplomatic efforts through Turkey and the United Nations have yet to reach a solution.

If land roads and railways through neighbouring countries are chosen for transportation, it would imply acceptance of losing access to ports (after having lost the airports), exacerbating export costs, and leading to a rise in food prices.

Utilising the ports of neighbouring countries — such as Croatia on the Adriatic Sea or exporting via the Danube River — involves the risk of drawing these countries into the existing conflict. Some neighbouring countries, like Poland, have refused to allow Ukrainian exports through their territories as their local markets remain unaffected.

Given these challenges, a potential course of action for Ukraine is to consider targeting Russian ships in the Black Sea. This approach aims to make the Black Sea the primary battleground since land confrontations have yielded limited results in the 18 months since the war began.

The Baltic Sea: A potential theatre of future military operations?

The Nato summit — which took place on 11 July 2023 in Vilnius — was a historic milestone for Finland, marking its first summit as a member of the alliance. During this summit, Turkey's dropped its opposition to Sweden's inclusion in Nato, paving the way for a significant strategic shift in a region that was once under Moscow's influence.

Over time, Nato's influence over the Baltic Sea has grown steadily, which serves as a crucial maritime gateway for the Russian fleet to access its bases near St. Petersburg and in the heavily militarised Kaliningrad region.

In the past, Nato's presence in the Baltic Sea was limited to Denmark and Germany at the western end. Poland joined the alliance in 1999, and subsequently, most of the southern coast came under the control of the three Baltic republics — firmly placing the area under Nato's umbrella.

This year — in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine — both Sweden and Finland decided to abandon their longstanding neutrality and formally applied to join Nato in May.

The inclusion of Sweden and Finland in Nato has significant implications. The Baltic Sea is now surrounded by Nato countries — severely limiting Russia's access to the sea and expanding the front lines in northern Europe. This enhances defence capabilities in the region and bolsters the credibility of Nato's deterrence measures.

Additionally, the accession of these two countries expands Nato's presence in the Arctic, an area of growing strategic importance for both Russia and China.

Read more: Will China collaborate with Russia in the Arctic?

Nato expands its capabilities

Both Sweden and Finland possess considerable military capabilities and can seamlessly operate with Nato forces due to their interoperability and adherence to Nato standards in weapon systems.

Moreover, they have previously participated in Nato missions and exercises, bringing valuable additional capabilities to the alliance. This stands in contrast to most European countries that significantly reduced their military spending after the end of the Cold War.

Finland — according to the Finnish media — has one of the largest arsenals of artillery and ground forces in Europe, ahead of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. It has also recently replenished its air fleet and is expected to receive 64 American F-35 fighters by 2026.

Sweden's strength lies in its naval fleet, which is well suited to operate in the Baltic Sea. It has also equipped its air force with Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighters, which are smart, domestically developed fourth-generation fighters that could be a valuable asset in the Ukrainian arena.

In addition to their military capabilities, Finland and Sweden also possess advanced technologies in the field of communications. Finnish company Nokia, Swedish company Ericsson, and Chinese company Huawei are all major players in the fifth-generation (5G) network market.

This gives Finland and Sweden the potential to provide Nato with a qualitative addition in the field of modernising communications infrastructure and setting up 5G systems for military operations.

The combined naval capabilities of Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Poland could help to deter Russia from further aggression in the Baltic Sea, which could place a strain on Russian capabilities and distract Moscow's naval effort, which is currently concentrated in the Black Sea.

Germany and Poland also have formidable naval forces.

Germany has the 16th largest navy in the world, comprising 80 warships, including 11 frigates, 5 corvettes, 6 submarines, and 12 minesweepers. Poland has the 20th largest navy in the world, with 45 warships, including 6 frigates, 6 corvettes, and 7 submarines, as reported by Global Fire Power, a specialised military website.

The combined naval forces of these four countries would give Nato a strategic advantage in the Baltic Sea. This would deter Russia from further aggression in the region, and it would also make it more difficult for Russia to blockade the Baltic Sea.

Germany is a leading country in the field of military marine industries, with a strong navy that includes modern submarines. The Polish army is also well-equipped and well-funded.

Germany has a long history of shipbuilding and naval warfare. It is one of the leading countries in the world in the development and production of military marine vessels, including warships and submarines.

The German navy is well-equipped with modern submarines, such as the Dolphin-class submarine which is operated by diesel and electricity power and is among the most advanced submarines in the world.

The Polish army is also well-equipped and well-funded. It is ranked 24th among the 142 largest military forces in the world, according to the statistics of the American "Global Fire Power" website.

Read more: Russia masks deep internal fractures with threats to let Wagner invade Poland

The Polish navy includes 86 naval units, which makes it ranked 33rd in the world. The Polish defence budget is ranked the 18th-largest in the world estimated at $14.5bn.

Russia flexes its Baltic Sea muscles

On its part, Russia regularly conducts naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, as it is Russia's main waterway to St. Petersburg.

On 2 August 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defence conducted naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, under the name "Ocean Shield", with the participation of 30 warships and boats, 20 support ships and 6,000 military personnel. The naval manoeuvres included military exercises that practised protecting sea lanes, transporting soldiers, and defending coasts.

The naval exercises come as tensions between Nato and Russia continue to rise in the Baltic Sea region. Nato has upped its presence in the region in recent years, in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Russia has responded by conducting its own naval exercises in the region, and by deploying more troops and weapons to its Baltic coast.

Decision-makers and military planners in Nato countries acknowledge that ground operations in Ukraine have reached a deadlock. The existing lines of defence are unable to push Russian troops back further.

Additionally, attacks on Russian territory including limited drone penetrations of Moscow's airspace and attacks on the Crimean Bridge have not been able to alter the trajectory of the war.

The Black Sea has become a contested area of influence and a potential arena for future rounds of conflict. The grain crisis has further heightened tensions and transformed the conflict into a real-life hunger game.

Despite this, it appears that the Black Sea alone cannot absorb all the international tension arising from the escalating conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, it seems that the Baltic Sea will emerge as a new arena for intensified international conflict for an indefinite period.