Politics

Russia masks deep internal fractures with threats to let Wagner invade Poland

Warsaw is prepared but not worried about a possible Wagner invasion. Poland has one of the best-prepared European militaries and such a move would be a suicide mission for the Russian mercenaries.

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Polish soldiers stand guard. The threat to invade Poland may be a way to divert attention from Putin's mass purge of Russian figures and mask internal divisions with a bit of bravado.

Russia masks deep internal fractures with threats to let Wagner invade Poland

Michael Horowitz

last update on 27 Jul 2023

In a surreal scene in Russia, Belarusian President Lukashenko addressed Putin: “They are asking to go West, ask me for permission to go on a trip to Warsaw, to Rzeszow". He was speaking of the now infamous Wagner mercenary group. His remark prompted a slightly amused smile on the Russian president’s face.

“But of course,” Lukashenko added, “I am keeping them in central Belarus, like we agreed,” referring to an agreement he allegedly brokered after the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prighozin, launched himself on a mad race to Moscow, only to backtrack as he drew close to the city.

To reinforce both his points, Lukashenko added that he was “quietly controlling what is happening” with Wagner, adding that the group’s fighters were in a bad mood.”

A farfetched claim

By any measure, the claim that the Russian mercenaries are gearing up to invade Poland, or even preparing for what would be best described as a “raiding party”, is farfetched.

The group’s fighters are still recovering from the failed coup, living in tents in a camp in Belarus. The extent to which the group’s manpower has been affected by the consequences of the failed mutiny is unclear, but not all of the men the group had before 23-24 June (the day the mutiny ended) may be in Belarus.

AFP — T-shirts bearing images of private mercenary group Wagner are seen in a gift shop on downtown Arbat street in Moscow.

That’s not to mention that, according to Russia’s own Ministry of Defense, Wagner also relinquished most of their equipment, including 2,000 heavy vehicles, 20,000 assault rifles and 2 tons of munitions.

Satellite pictures of the camp in Belarus show no heavy vehicles, which would be needed for even a minor incursion into Poland.

Satellite images reveal Wagner Belarus camp arrival https://t.co/cElqy23EkB
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) July 18, 2023

This shows how much faith the Belarusian ruler may have in these ill-tempered mercenaries. This is not the group of ‘mad boyz’ ready to invade yet another country, but one recovering from a failed mutiny, with their fate hanging in the balance.

Prigozhin, who registered his company “Concord Consulting and Management Services” in Belarus, is still busy flying in and out of Russia, and returning the money and personal belongings that were seized in St. Petersburg during the fateful day-and-half “March of Justice” he organised.

Poland prepared...not worried

On the other side of the border is the Polish army, perhaps one of the best-prepared European militaries to face Russia. Warsaw’s armed forces have been preparing to face the full brunt of the Russian army.

They would likely make fast work of a demoralised mercenary force whose main success these past years was taking a small mining town in Eastern Ukraine — that is if you ignore the “own goal” they scored against their team by rushing towards Moscow.

To be sure, Poland is taking the threat seriously and is moving two mechanised brigades from the Western parts of the country to the border with Belarus. Minsk does have a history of tampering with Poland’s border security, including fabricating a migrant crisis along Warsaw’s border in 2021.

AFP/Majalla — Migrant families from Syria and Iraq are seen behind the border wall at Polish - Belarus border not far from Bialowieza, eastern Poland, on May 29, 2023.

Using Wagner as a nuisance, with deniable ties to the Kremlin is a remote scenario, but a scenario indeed. More broadly, militaries tend to adopt the “better safe than sorry” approach — as they should.

In other words, these deployments should not be viewed as a sign that Poland is truly worried about the “hungry Wagner boyz” crossing the border, so much as deterring them from doing so, and preparing in the unlikely case they are sent on what would be a suicidal mission to tamper with one of Nato's best-defended borders.

Polish deployments should not be viewed as a sign that Warsaw is truly worried about the "hungry Wagner boyz" crossing the border. But they are preparing for the unlikely case that they are sent on what would be a suicidal mission to tamper with one of Nato's best-defended borders.

So why did Lukashenko make that remark?

This may have to do with the Belarusian autocrat's own insecurities first. By highlighting that Wagner was capable of acting irrationally, he may be sending the message to Putin that his agreement to the deal does not come without risks.

Tensions still ripe

What may have been more important in Lukashenko's message was the part about Wagner being unruly and in a "bad mood", rather than the fantasies about an invasion of Poland.

This narrative is credible: It shows that, weeks after the mutiny, and after Putin himself purportedly met with Prigozhin, Wagner fighters still haven't calmed down.

A month after the mutiny, tensions between the Kremlin and Putin's former cook are still high, and warrant a clear warning, coming from Lukashenko — the man who allegedly put an end to the mutiny by brokering a deal to transfer Wagner to Belarus.

Sebastien Thibault

Russian media has been awash with implicit criticism of Prigozhin, while Prigozhin himself made a speech in Belarus criticising the "disgraceful" way the Russian army was conducting the war in Ukraine.

Another more subtle message reinforced this warning.

During Lukashenko's Russia trip to St. Petersburg, the Belarusian president and his Russian host visited the port of Kronstadt. Kronstadt is most known for being the site of a failed anti-soviet mutiny that was crushed by communist forces in 1921.

Adding insult to injury, they did so in the company of Kseniya Shoigu, the daughter of the Russian Minister of Defence who Prigozhin sought to remove and who just happened to be the head of a project office in St. Petersburg.

Lukashenko's message about Wagner being unruly and in a "bad mood" is credible: It shows that, weeks after the mutiny, and after Putin himself purportedly met with Prigozhin, Wagner fighters still haven't calmed down.

AFP — This video grab taken from handout footage posted on June 24, 2023 on Telegram shows Yevgeny Prigozhin (C) speaking with Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseev (R) and Russian Defense Deputy Minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov (L).

Since the mutiny, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov have remained in office despite Prigozhin's demand to have them replaced. Days after the mutiny, when asked whether Putin's opinion of Shoigu had changed after the mutiny, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said he "was not aware of any changes in that regard".

And indeed, although Shoigu may appear moodier than usual in meetings, there are no signs that the Kremlin has withdrawn support for the minister.

A silent purge

In fact, the Kremlin appears to be in the midst of a quiet purge. Most notably, the commander of Russia's Aerospace Forces, General Sergey Surovikin, has not been seen since the mutiny. Rumours have circulated as to what Surovikin may have known of the upcoming mutiny and his relatively good relations with Prigozhin.

In another very public arrest, Russian law enforcement detained Igor Girkin, a former Russian military officer suspected of being involved in the shooting down of the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine.

Since then, Girkin has established himself as a war blogger, and one of the key figures of a pro-war faction. He is the founder of the nationalist "Club of Angry Patriots", which has been heavily critical of the way Russia is conducting the war.

The Club was said to even be preparing to enter politics, which likely crossed a redline that ended up prompting Girkin's arrest. Another red line was crossed by Girkin himself, who took even more direct aim at Putin and called for his replacement by "someone truly capable and responsible".

But Surovikin's disappearance and Girkin's arrest are likely just the tip of the iceberg. Other reports and talks among pro-Russian military bloggers have suggested that the purge was far more vast and that the Ministry of Defense is lashing out against any whiff of dissent among Russian officers.

Surovikin's disappearance and Girkin's arrest are likely just the tip of the iceberg. Other reports and talks among pro-Russian military bloggers have suggested that the purge was far more vast and that the Ministry of Defense is lashing out against any whiff of dissent among Russian officers.

Reuters — Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group stand on a tank outside a local circus near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023.

The head of Russia's 58th Combined Armed Army, Major-General Ivan Popov was abruptly relieved of his command, despite manning a critical front in southern Ukraine, currently the main focus of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Popov had reportedly complained about military deficiencies. These complaints were made public by a Duma lawmaker, thus putting a target on his back.

Notably, Popov received the support of another Russian lawmaker, showing that cracks are starting to appear even among Russia's political elite. Some are also preparing to try and defend Girkin, as he faces charges of "extremism".

This purge is still in its infancy and the threat to Poland may be a way to divert attention from what's really going on in Russia and mask internal divisions with a bit of bravado.

Prigozhin owed his life to his ability to command loyalty among his men, and the fact that Wagner effectively represents Russia's long arm in many countries in Africa, amongst others. But the story is far from over, as Russia may still not be done eating its own.

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