Ukraine's upsurge in military activity achieves mixed results

Preparations for the military assault have been taking place throughout the winter and spring as Ukrainian commanders have sought to integrate sophisticated Western weaponry, from main battle tanks to long-range missiles, into their fighting units.

A total of nine new Ukrainian fighting brigades have been formed, providing Kyiv with a new 50,000-strong fighting force to support its new effort to defeat Russia following last year's invasion.

But while the new Ukrainian fighting units will certainly help the country's war effort, questions remain about their effectiveness, especially as many of the new formations are composed of troops with little if any combat experience.

In addition, they are being required to use Western equipment that is very different from the Soviet-era weaponry that the Ukrainian military has traditionally relied upon.

Another key factor that could have an impact on the Ukrainians' ability to make solid gains on the battlefield is their lack of air cover, a key component for any successful ground offensive.

While the Ukrainian air force has performed heroically during the past year, it is still no match for its far larger Russian adversary, suggesting the Ukrainians could be vulnerable to attack from the air.

Ukraine's desperate need to improve its air defences is the reason Kyiv has been lobbying so hard to be equipped with Western warplanes such as American F-16s.

Read more: Washington manages expectations over F-16s approval for Kyiv

Despite these difficulties, the Ukrainians remain determined to go on the offensive, with the result that their military units have staged a series of attacks against Russian positions in recent days, with varying degrees of success.

Bakmut and Kakhovka dam

One of their more significant moves has been to capture territory around Bakhmut, striking a bitter blow against mercenaries fighting for Russia's Wagner Group militia which only last month claimed it had taken control of the city after months of bitter fighting.

After Ukrainian forces managed to recapture the village of Berkhivka, about 1.9 miles north-west of Bakhmut, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, launched a blistering attack on the Russian military, denouncing Russian forces as a "disgrace" for abandoning their positions.

In a recording published by his press service, Prigozhin declared: "Now part of the settlement of Berkhivka has already been lost, the troops are quietly running away. Disgrace!"

Tensions between  Prigozhin and Russia's military establishment have been growing in recent months as the uncompromising Wagner boss has publicly criticised Russian generals for not doing more to support the Wagner group's offensive to capture Bakhmut.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin sensitive to criticism that his so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine is not achieving its objectives, the Kremlin is keen to achieve some battlefield successes of its own.

This could well explain reports that Russia was responsible for the highly-controversial attack on the Soviet-era Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, which has unleashed a torrent of flood water across the war zone around the strategically important city of Kherson, widely regarded as the gateway to the Russian-occupied Crimea peninsula.

Flooding the area around Kherson will make it enormously difficult for the Ukrainians to achieve one of their key war objectives of recapturing Crimea, thereby providing the Russians with a significant advantage as they seek to retain their grip on the peninsula, home to Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Preventing Ukraine from achieving its military goals is certainly important for Moscow if Russia is to prevent Kyiv from achieving its long-term ambition of joining the Nato alliance.

So long as the fighting continues, Ukraine's attempts to join the alliance will be put on hold, as allowing Kyiv membership while the war is ongoing would involve Nato member states becoming involved directly in the conflict, an escalation that Western leaders are desperate to avoid.

But Kyiv has made it clear that, if it succeeds in defeating the Russians, then its  next step will be to seek full membership of the alliance, a move that would represent a bitter blow to Putin, whose justification for invading Ukraine last year was to prevent it from joining the Nato alliance.

Meeting with British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly this week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made it clear that joining Nato remained Kyiv's ultimate goal.

"Nato membership cannot stop this war, but Nato membership will stop further wars," he said.  "This is why the best way to ensure security in the region is to come to the moment when Ukraine becomes a member of Nato".