Three years ago, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq were raining rockets and mortars on the US Embassy in Baghdad. To protect US personnel, in the summer of 2020 the Trump Administration took the unprecedented step of moving a Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar system or C-RAM into the diplomatic compound.
In subsequent months, the C-RAM, which fires up to 4500 5-inch long bullets per minute, shot down dozens of incoming projectiles.
This dynamic changed with the Biden administration, which shortly after inauguration shelved Trump’s so-called maximum pressure campaign against Iran and engaged the theocracy in negotiations with an eye toward reentering into a nuclear deal.
Consequently, over the past year, the targeting of the US Embassy in Baghdad — and the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq — largely subsided. Notwithstanding the recent veneer of improved security, however, the threat to US personnel and interests emanating from Iraq again appears to be on the rise.
The latest warning signs emerged in mid-May after President Biden declared the continuation of a “national emergency” in Iraq under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act or IEEPA.
His pronouncement, and an earlier television interview with US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski — in which she asserted innocuously that the US would “not leave the region” — have had a dysregulating effect on at least some of these pro-Iran militias known as the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
#RudawMERIForum: US Ambassador to Iraq Alina Romanowski says the US is here to stay in Iraq and will not be going anywhere. pic.twitter.com/VPu9jsWKzL
— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) November 2, 2022
In the aftermath of these announcements, a PMF-related group, Ashab al Kahf, issued a statement urging renewed military operations against American “occupation forces,” including bases and convoys, in Iraq.
“We only need you in the right place,” the militia later threatened, but “all times are appropriate.” The organisation also called on its forces via a message on Telegram to “silence the demon,” a menacing reference to Ambassador Romanowski.
The PMF is also agitated by Washington’s productive working relationship with the Iraqi premier, Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani. Not only has Al Sudani supported the continued US military presence as part of the coalition against the Islamic State (IS), he has worked to reduce Iraq’s energy dependence on Iran.
Worse perhaps for the PMF, Al Sudani and Romanowski meet incessantly.